저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 빅테크 하락은 펀더멘털 악화와 월가 선호 상실이 겹친 것이며, 반등이 나와도 아직 바닥 신호로 보기 어렵다는 취지. [전체 시장·빅테크 진단] 빅테크(FANG 등)는 최근 몇 주간 기술적·실적 측면 모두 악화됐고, 1년 전 월가가 이미 외면한 흐름이 확인됐다는 주장. [캐롤린 보로덴 차트 분석 - 아마존] 2020년에는 고점·저점이 높아지고 200일선·50일선 위에서 움직이는 강세 구조였으나, 2022년 들어 저점·고점이 낮아지며 약세 구조로 전환. 5일 지수이동평균이 13일선 아래로 내려가 단기 약세 신호이며, 하락 시 저점 매수는 위험하다고 봄. 피보나치 시간 신호상 이번 주 중요한 저점 가능성이 있으나, 반등해도 단기에 그칠 것으로 봄. [캐롤린 보로덴 차트 분석 - 알파벳(구글)] 200일·50일 이동평균선 아래, 저점·고점이 계속 낮아지는 약세 패턴. 반등하더라도 88~93달러 구간 저항을 돌파하기 어렵다고 봄. 매도 의견. [캐롤린 보로덴 차트 분석 - 엔비디아] 최근 5일선이 13일선·30일선을 상향 돌파하며 단기 반등 신호가 나왔고, 10월 저점 이후 고점·저점이 높아지는 단기 패턴은 긍정적. 다만 200일선 아래이고 장기 패턴은 여전히 약세. 147~150달러, 152달러 부근 저항이 있어 단기 반등 매매만 리스크를 감수하며 고려 가능. [시청자 질의 - 주택건설주] 진행자는 모기지 금리 급등으로 DHI 등 homebuilder 주가는 더 낮아야 한다고 보며, 실적 발표(수요일) 전 보유에 부정적. 저가 재진입을 선호. [시청자 질의 - 기타] 뉴멕시코 테마파크 제안은 무시. 이튼(ETN)과 ABB 전력 인프라 비교에서 이튼 쪽을 긍정적으로 언급. 니소스(NiSource) 유틸리티 주 관심 표명, 핀테크 관련 질문에는 명확 답변 없음. [결론] 빅테크 전반은 바닥 낚시(저점 매수) 상황이 아니며, 엔비디아만 상대적으로 나은 반등 가능성이 있다는 진단.
다듬은 글
foreign how much worse can things get for the big Tech Titans now that they've collapsed and I'm not talking about today's bounce see the last couple weeks have been downright apocalyptic for so many tech companies that we used to think of as consistent winners kind of secular growth businesses that worked in both good times and bad times not anymore though with a few exceptions the fundamentals have gotten much worse for Fang and friends but it's not just that the numbers are ugly these stocks went out of style the Wall Street fashion show a year ago yeah I literally a year ago this week and this early season has confirmed that Wall Street made the right call now despite today's pop things have gotten very ugly and there's also a psychological opponent because these big Tech outfits keep making their biggest supporters look like morons that makes everything a lot harder for their stocks how much harder okay tonight because we got to be objective about this we're gonna go off the charts for the help of Carolyn barodin now she is a brilliant technician she teaches at the I am Academy sfx the stocks and Futures Academy because we got to get a better read on what's happening with big Tech and I got to tell you I can turn to her because this group is so confounding specifically we want to look at three up we want to look at Amazon alphabet and Nvidia first though you need to understand what's changed take a look at this daily chart of Amazon this is going to be this will blow your mind up from back in 2020 the good old days the Halcyon Days at least for this particular breed of Internet stock obviously not so uh good if you were living through it Broden says this is the old paradigm where Amazon had an incredibly bullish technical setup the stock was in great shape constantly making a general pattern of higher highs and higher lows exactly what you want to see at the same time the stock was trading above both its 200-day moving average and it's 50 today so you've seen it's got to be above this and this pretty much well look look at this all the time plus Broden likes to look at a particular buy trigger when the five-day exponential moving average the Blue Line okay crosses above the 13 day and boy have we ever seen look at this so clear right every time Redline which just this you got to pass it's got to pass got to pass always right uh that's when she thinks that it's a great setup it's exactly what we had in Amazon two years ago so what did we get we got one of the greatest rallies I've ever seen in my whole life more importantly every time Amazon pulled back in 2020 you could safely buy the dips and you make out like a bandit it was a great Playbook then and for most of 2021 but it keeps getting people killed in 2022.
so let's take a look at 22. check out Amazon's daily chart for this year Broden points out that almost the exact opposite of what we were looking at in 2020. Amazon's made a series of lower lows and lower highs forming a clear negative pattern see lower lower lower lower the stocks below both its 200 day that's this one and it's 50 day that's this one uh these are crucial her exponential moving average trigger the five day versus the 13 day it's now in Bear mode that's this crosses that okay and uh it's underneath the 13th this is terrible take a look at that everything that could be wrong is wrong with this stock and Bros Drew this kind of chart absolutely does not support buying the dips cheating should take your life in your hands if you do that even if the Stock's been eviscerated the past couple weeks or like me thinking it's an unbelievable long-term picture as Brodin sees it there's nothing in this picture suggests that Amazon's ready to bottom now that said there's one more thing she's looking at here brother likes to take past uh she likes to take you to help past swings in the stock then run them through the prism of Fibonacci ratios to project future moves both in terms of their scale price and their duration time right now she says Amazon's got a cluster of Fibonacci time signals coming up which means there's a chance the stock could potentially make an important low this week however even if Amazon can temporarily find its footing Broden thinks the overall pattern here is so negative that any rally would be short-lived if the stock does bounce yep she recommends that you ring the register what could make her more positive on Amazon well the first thing that would have to change is the exponential moving average crossover um and we talked about that that's right here um she won a few days of upside that would allow the five day to cross back above the 13 day that would be the first indication of a short-term rally but again that by itself doesn't mean the Stock's bottom so we don't necessarily if it goes up like that we're not necessarily to call bottom so um what can I say I look at it and I think if they made the big big cuts that they need to make then we'd see this break out clearly she does not agree with my thinking next up how about the daily chart of alphabet the artist formerly known as Google where I think they're getting disciplined Broden says this one's in a similar position outfit's trading below both the 200 day and the 50-day moving averages we see that the 200 days this is and by the way let's call it that's something that's where it's appreciably below it's got a general pattern of lower lows and lower highs again that's is what we see over and over and over very very negative exactly what they hate Charis the five-day exponential moving average is below the 13 day again just awful and that's remember her personal salesman she's saying sell this in her view like so many other big Tech names quite a lot of technical damage has been done to alphabet especially over the past few weeks they've turned real bearish and Broden doesn't believe that they can shift back to Bull mode overnight of course she thinks it's possible to get some oversold rallies here the stock has a lot of resistance on the way up though you've got a bunch of ceilings running from eight from 88 to 93 that's pretty far from here uh given the lack of anything bullish in this chart uh Broden wouldn't bet on Alpha breaking through this ceiling I she's so agent now there is one horrifically beaten down Tech stock that's actually showing signs of improvement and that one is NVIDIA although Broden stresses that this one's still not out of the woods after spending about the year lost in the wilderness Nvidia has recently started bouncing which is really incredible because boys bounced on bad news uh in fact the five-day exponential moving average uh has now crossed above the 13th day I don't want to obscure that that's the that's crossed above the 30-day and that's broden's butcher it's fired while the long-term pattern in the video though is still heinous and that's the long term is this one okay down down you know look at that down down okay uh Broden says the short-term pattern looks a lot better since the October Blues the stocks actually made a pattern of higher highs and higher lows this is important for me because they pre-announce they pronounce a bad quarter and then they didn't did it and it wasn't good in the stock bottom that's very positive to me but it's only a possibility Broden also says Nvidia is not out of the woods yet because the Stock's still trading below its 200-day moving average which is very far above here uh and of course the longer term pattern going back to last year remains incredibly bearish even if Nvidia can maintain its recent momentum she points out that the stocks facing major psyllium resistance between 147 and 150 another ceiling around 152.
so it needs to jump some serious hurdles if it's going to get its groove back and that's pretty hard to imagine if you want to make a short term better than video here she actually sanctions it but she does say it's a big risk I say that someone who's a big believer in this one longer term then again as I've told investing club members endlessly this simply isn't a good market for the semiconductor stocks and she I can tell you the bounce even though she says it's the best one I certainly when I sat down and thought about all the stuff she's saying uh it it's uh inconclusive bottom line the big tech stocks have been hammered from their Highs but the charts interpret By Carolyn Broden suggests it probably isn't safe to start bottom fishing even if those charts begin to improve a bit Amazon and alphabet simply aren't in by the dip situation like I said a little bit more positive about Nvidia because it started to turn but she says don't get your hopes up for too long I hope that's not the case Doug in North Carolina Doug hey boo yo buddy how are you doing drip I'm doing well how about you I'm doing good doing good hey Jim what are your thoughts on the home builders in particular DHI you know they seem to be holding up even though the market itself seems to have had the emergency brake pulled on it we've got earnings coming up this Wednesday kind of wanted to see your thoughts on on them as well as uh Lennar and kbh and the the shower you know this is one of those situations frankly Doug where the stock should be lower uh the increase in mortgage rates is so aggressive that it's very hard for me to understand hear them say anything good maybe this time's different and they've gotten their act together better but I think the cancer rates can be very high I don't want to own them going into this quarters I think I buy them after probably get them cheaper let's go to Marcus New Mexico please Marcus Jim let's get that amusement park here in New Mexico what do you say I am telling you got 300 000 Acres all set for Disney they just don't seem to be listening to me how can I help hey I got a quick question for you uh etn or ABB both plays on electrification in the grid similar margins ABB is cheaper better dividend but econ has had better five-year stock Appliance what do you say that Eaton conference call was a thing of beauty and they are the EV charging stage they are all the equipment you need to be able to convert this whole country into a a situation where we could be solar generated it's much more better than Germany hey it's always sunny in Germany like 27 of the time for everything right anyway I like your call the charts is interpreted by Colin Broad and suggests it isn't safe to make a bottom fishing call in Tech Amazon and outfit aren't in the by the situations Nvidia a little bit different the much more may I might have including my exclusive but niceource in the face of Market volatility maybe we should be thinking about a utility company like nisource I'm learning more about the story myself with the company CEO and fintech used to fintech used to be a market darling so could newthier surrounding the sustainability of the co-work be worn it I'll give you my take and of course all your calls private parts United around so stay with Kramer
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