저자: 미상 · 한국인
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스탠리 드러켄밀러 패밀리오피스 2026년 1분기 13F 분석. 구글·아마존 대폭 축소, 금융주 ETF(XLF) 전량 매도, 브로드컴 신규 매수, 바이오(Natera 18%) 집중, RSP 현물 매도 후 콜옵션 매수로 시장 확산 베팅. 자산 약 22% 감소분을 현금화해 방어 태세 구축으로 해석. 다만 13F는 45일 지연 데이터이므로 현재 포지션으로 추종하지 말 것을 강조.
다듬은 글
Wow, everyone, I seriously doubted my two years . Wait, am I looking at the Q1 2026 13F disclosure data correctly ? Seriously, what era are we living in that you're selling Google and Amazon? Isn't the AI revolution just beginning? Most of you who clicked on this video probably had the exact same thoughts as me .
I 'm not trying to stir up trouble, to put it crudely. The best trader, acknowledged even by Wall Street legend among legends Wall Street Warren Buffett, has literally dumped Google and Amazon, the core of the Magnificent 7 leading the market at this very moment . What on earth is happening backstage?
This person, an avid fan of tech stocks who reads trends faster than anyone else, has completely overhauled their portfolio. To summarize this person's trading history today in one sentence, it is as follows. It is the establishment of a macroeconomic defense posture through securing massive cash, and precision strikes on AI infrastructure and the healthcare sector that generate reliable cash flow .
Today, we will not merely skim over this shocking trading history, but will dig into every inch of the true intentions hidden behind it and exactly what kind of economic storm this master is preparing for . Now, please keep the channel tuned and pay attention. Today, the subject we will dissect in depth is the Q1 2026 portfolio of the Duquesne Family Office, led by Stanley Drummiller .
Rather than simply buying and selling a few stocks, I will completely rethink the macroscopic view of the current market through this master class on the trading of a great master . If you happen to be new to the stock market, you might wonder who on earth Stelly Drummiller is and why everyone is making such a fuss about him.
Everyone, take a look at this crazy record on the screen . It is a whopping 30 years. The average annual return recorded while operating the fund for 30 years, not just 3 years, is a whopping 30.4%. Imagine this running at compound interest for 30 years . Can you imagine it? However, what is truly scary is not the size of the rate of return .
The text right next to it is zero losing years. The fact is that for 30 years, not a single year—really even a year—has been recorded with a negative rate of return . Everyone, what has happened over the past 30 years ? This means that even amidst those terrible bear markets—from the collapse of the Dot-Com Act in 2000, the global financial crisis triggered by the Sublime Fund in 2008, to the pandemic crash in 2020, when investors worldwide shed tears as their accounts were cut in half or into thirds— this person never lost money even once.
He was also the real protagonist of Black Wednesday in 1992, when he and George Soros brought the Bank of England to its knees through short selling . This master, specialized to the core in reading the flow of the global macroeconomics, is currently showing unusual movements. We must never ignore this signal.
Now, since we are not yet in the main story of the chaplaincy, we must go over the numbers right away . -21.98% 98% In the first quarter, the total assets under management of Duquesne Family Opeth dropped from $4.49 billion in the previous quarter to $3.38 billion, with a whopping $ 1.1 billion—nearly 1.5 trillion won—evaporating into thin air .
Wait, did the fund's return get crushed? Or is it a fund run where investors have taken all the stones? No, everyone. Duquesne Family Office is a family office, just as its name suggests. It is a place that does not receive any external funds and relies solely on Drummiller's own eyes. In other words, it means that the rate of return was not destroyed, but that he himself sold off a massive amount of stocks worth over 1 trillion won on the market and filled his pockets with cash.
Reduced the weight of stocks by nearly 22%. This is no ordinary matter. It is like putting on a massive bulletproof vest for the portfolio to prepare for current market bubble controversies, valuation burdens, or potential future macroeconomic shocks . You could say that a very strong defensive posture has been established.
Let's keep the significance of this cash in mind and move on to the next step. Now, let's get down to business . Part 1: Portfolio Overhaul Diagram. Let's analyze the major stocks sold and what was sold and why . First, let's look at the closed outlist visible on the screen . It’s not that I reduced the weight a bit.
These are the stocks that were sold as part of a strategy to completely eliminate them from the portfolio, leaving not a single share . The most shocking stock here that catches our eye is XLF, a financial stock ETF. They sold off a whopping 5.49 million shares . Everyone, as recently as the last quarter, this XLF accounted for as much as 6.7% of the total portfolio .
It was a huge proportion. However, I ruthlessly cut ties with it without looking back. You might ask, "Aren't bank stocks safe because they pay good dividends ?" However, the eyes of a master are different. This is not a simple position adjustment. The fact that the entire financial sector in the portfolio has been completely emptied means that something is creaking inside the current financial system .
Interest rate cuts continue to be delayed because inflation remains unchecked . As high interest rates persist, concerns regarding the stability of commercial real estate lending in the U.S. are resurfacing . The risks for small and medium-sized regional banks also remain. Drummiller has now thrown a very strong and cold warning message to the market, saying that he will no longer participate in this game of hot potato .
The following are stocks that were not completely sold but had their weight significantly cut . Here, we take charge of the bones. We cut Amazon's weight by 3.51% and reduced Google's by 2.68%. And it is a company that South Korean investors truly love . Even Coupang, which once filled the top spot in Drummiller's portfolio as his top stock, dumped nearly 4.1 million shares this time, causing its weight to drop to the 1% range.
Wait, why are you selling all the top-performing stocks and the Magnificent 7 leaders that we know and that lead the market ? Do you feel betrayed? Yes, yes, it is perfectly understandable. But everyone, there is no eternal love in the stock market . This is an extremely cold and mechanical realization of profit.
Major tech stocks have been rising like crazy due to expectations for AI. They accurately sensed the need for valuation amidst that upward rally . While others cheered and belatedly followed suit buying tech stocks, the master stepped back from the familiar winners to lock in profits and used that money to load the massive cash ammunition I mentioned earlier.
Leave while the applause is loudest . You are essentially putting this principle into practice . Part 2. Major Portfolio Overhaul. I didn't just sell. If they had loaded live cash ammunition, they would have fired at the upfront. Let's analyze the new buying targets. In this list of new entries and increased weightings, the key stock we truly need to pay the most attention to is the Broadcom Ticom-type AVGO.
In this quarter, we newly added a whopping 195,000 shares worth approximately $60 million to our portfolio. Now, here comes a very important question . Wait, you sold off all the leading AI stocks like Google and Amazon earlier, so why did you go all-in on Broadcom just because it's grouped under the same AI theme ?
It doesn't add up. It is precisely at this point that Drummiller’s frightening insight into the fundamental role and core objectives of AI penetrating the current market is contained . Do you remember the shock when Chaechi T first appeared? At that time, AI software companies were the main players in the market.
It was a battle over who could create a smarter AI. However, the master's view has now completely moved to the next stage. What is the basic role of AI ? It understands human commands and produces results. However, in that process, an unimaginable amount of data must be moved . The core goal of the AI industry has now evolved beyond simply creating smart harvesting tools to building practical infrastructure that processes this astronomical amount of data quickly, seamlessly, and efficiently while minimizing power consumption .
It means that since the cool sports car software has already been created, now we need to lay down the massive highway hardware infrastructure that will allow the car to reach its top speed. Broadcom is the absolute leader in the field of communications semiconductors and custom chips that enter that very highway.
It is nearly impossible for companies like Google and Meta to create their own AI chips without Broadcom's technological capabilities . In other words, instead of the numerous software companies rushing to mine gold during the massive gold mine era of the AI boom, they precisely struck capital like a sniper only at the hardware monopoly winners who sold the pickaxes and jeans that were absolutely necessary for them .
This is precisely the master's completely new perspective on AI. But here's the thing. Everyone, please take a deep breath. There is a separate, truly shocking part of this 13F disclosure that shocked me the most . Do you know what the number one holding is by far at Duquesne Family Office right now?
It is not Microsoft or Apple. It is Natera NTRA, a healthcare company specializing in genetic testing, which may be somewhat unfamiliar to you . It accounts for 18.14% of the total free portfolio . yes. It's not 1.8%. yes. It is 18.14%. %no see. In the world of institutional investors and fund managers, if the weighting of a single stock exceeds just 5%, people evaluate it by saying, "Wow, that manager must really be confident in that stock." However, he invested nearly hundreds of billions of won of his assets into a single stock, and that too into a bio-healthcare company known for its severe volatility.
This is not a simple investment. It is a bet that is absolutely impossible unless you have thoroughly analyzed this company down to the very core—its business model, financial statements, and future growth potential—and possessed 1000% certainty—no, conviction—that you are definitely going for it . Even ISMM, the second-largest holding, is a healthcare company accounting for 5.59% of the portfolio.
The top two are both biotech companies. While money is currently concentrated solely on AI and IT worldwide, this giant is quietly looking beyond them . We discovered the mega trends of the next era in the bio and healthcare sectors, which can serve as a refuge at the tail end of the IT bubble while simultaneously possessing tremendous explosive power .
Part 3. The Master's Big Picture. Let's synthesize the movements of the individual stocks we have seen so far to analyze Drummiller's macro view and market outlook. The key hint to perfectly piece together this complex big picture puzzle is hidden right here in this RSP trading history. This is a really spine-chilling strategy.
In this quarter, we sold all of the spot shares of RSP, an SMP 500 equal-weighted ETF, by cutting out 5% from our portfolio . However, what they insisted on was that they simultaneously swept up as many as 821,000 new shares of RSP call options tracking the same index . I mean, if you're going to invest in the exact same index, why bother selling stocks and buying Caution?
Isn't caution dangerous? This is where the true skill of the masters , the magic of risk management and leverage, comes out. Everyone, the standard SP 500 is weighted by market capitalization, so the top 7 stocks, such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, drag the index along . On the other hand, RSP is an ETF that invests equally in 500 companies, with 0.2% and 2% weightings .
In other words, it represents the performance of the remaining 493 average companies, excluding Magnificent Seddon. Droketmiller held onto RSP spot shares and cashed them out because he could suffer a large loss if the market crashed . Instead, I bought a call option betting on a rising market. In this way, even if the market falls into a slump and crashes, my maximum loss is limited exactly to the option premium I paid .
It's a perfect downside defense. However, conversely, if a bull market comes where market funds, which have been concentrated only in tech stocks until now, spread widely to the remaining 493 neglected companies, you will monopolize explosive profits of tens or hundreds of times compared to holding spot stocks through the leverage effect of call options.
A perfect asymmetrical betting strategy that blocks the bottom and pierces the ceiling from above. This is exactly the level where Wall Street legends play . So, if we reverse-engineer Stanley Drummiller's brain structure—that is, his macro view—through all the trading changes to date, it can be summarized in exactly three lines.
First, Tech Megacapsulation. The Magnificent 7, the large tech stocks that have been driving the market wildly, have now reached a valuation need of one. It is time to catch my breath strongly. Second, Browning Market Participation. That does not mean the U.S. stock market bull market itself has ended.
There will be an expansion of market participation as the flow of money, which has previously been concentrated only on technology stocks, spreads widely to mid-sized or value stocks that have not benefited . So I bought the RSP call option . The third and final aggressive healthcare conviction. It is an overwhelming conviction in cutting-edge healthcare biotech companies that will achieve explosive growth through independent innovation, completely independent of economic recession and the upcoming macroeconomic uncertainty .
It is truly an artistic portfolio that secures substantial cash while aggressively betting on sure growth drivers . Now, for those of you who listened to my explanation and are thinking, "Wow, I'm going to go buy Natera and buy Broadcom tomorrow right now," please pause for a moment. There is one most fatal and important fact here that we must never forget .
It is a trap in the 13F disclosure. The data we are currently analyzing is the portfolio as of the end of the first quarter, that is, March 31. This is because, according to regulations, it is not released to the public until a full 45 days have passed . In other words, we are not currently looking at a real-time GPS showing the master's current location .
I am looking at footprints that are fading from the wind that passed along the beach 45 days ago . What happened in the market during those 45 days ? There was tremendous volatility. Droket Miller might have completely changed his mind in the meantime, sold all of Natera, and left, or he might have bought back the Google he had sold .
No one knows. Therefore, you must absolutely, absolutely not blindly follow this 13F data and buy stocks as if it were a surefire answer key predicting which stocks will rise tomorrow . Then, how should we apply the past footsteps of this great investor to actual investing? Finally, this is the last part, Part 4: Practical Copycat Strategy.
I will go over specific action guidelines on how to apply this massive portfolio to the accounts of ordinary individual investors like us . Here are three action plans for your successful investment. First, it is a company worth studying and reviewing positively . Natera, which the master showed firm conviction in with an insane 18% weighting, and Broadcom, which was swept up while defining the core goal of AI as infrastructure, are not merely theme stocks.
Given that the healthcare sector combines the megatrend of expanding AI data centers with defensive high growth, it is an excellent target for us to review business reports and study from a mid-to-long-term perspective. This is the second place you need to be careful about. Should I just buy an S&P 500 ETF instead of individual stocks?
Those who do it. The current general SP 500 index has been driven up almost entirely by a small number of top seven big tech companies . If these major tech stocks undergo a correction as predicted by the master, the entire index could falter. With the market expanding, it is now time to seriously consider diversifying investments into equal-weighted ETFs or small-to-mid-cap indices such as the Russell 2000 .
Finally, this is a company that needs to be seriously re-examined . Are your accounts packed with Amazon, Google, and Coupang ? I am absolutely not saying that these companies will go bankrupt right away . They are the world's best companies. However, the fact remains that trillions of won worth of smart money moving the market is already realizing significant profits from them, taking money away and converting it into cash .
We must keep this in mind and break free from the illusion that prices will eventually rise further; instead, we need to seriously consider adjusting our account weightings and managing risk. After opening up Duquesne Family Office's first-quarter portfolio today, I feel like I've been hit hard on the head .
We usually just obsess over whether we are right or wrong after finishing a stock . However, the legend of a 30-year undefeated streak demonstrates with its whole being how important extreme risk management is— holding a sharp sword and responding to the market's direction rather than blindly loving a stock .
In the world of investing, there are no winning stocks that rise forever, but strategies to survive in the market forever certainly exist. I will conclude today's analysis with a very famous quote left by George Soros, the investment genius and spiritual mentor of Stelly Drummiller . It is not important whether you were right or wrong in the market.
What is truly important is how much money you earned when you were right and how little you lost when you were wrong . you're right. Only those who suffer less in a bear market are ultimately qualified to make a big profit in a bull market. Take a look at your portfolio . Do you hold a room called solid cash in preparation for a potential market crash ?
Or are you still holding onto an aggressive sword that could break at any moment, trapped in the illusion of AI? Tonight is the time to quietly open your accounts and think deeply. I will return next time with an even sharper analysis. Thank you for watching.
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