The Coming Collapse of All Crypto.

요약 보기

암호화폐 생태계 전체가 붕괴할 수 있다는 주장. 이더리움 2.0(머지) 시 약 900만 ETH의 언락으로 대량 매도 압력 발생 가능(예: 주간 80만 ETH 매도, 공급 16% 증가 시 가격 약 35% 하락 추정). FTX·바이낸스의 구제금융 능력 한계와 스테이블코인 레버리지 노출 위험을 경고. 경기침체 국면에서 세 가지 위협이 겹칠 수 있다고 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so i just got back from a run and was wondering could the entire crypto ecosystem and economy collapse like literally all of it tokens nfts the entire nearly 900 billion dollar market cap everything collapsed it would literally be the size of tesla just going bankrupt in this recession and while that sounds like a lot of fun there are three very important things that you need to pay attention to so that way you could identify red flags of that kind of potential for collapse happening we're going to talk about them right now but let me tell you here folks you're going to want to sign up for life insurance after you hear this one which you can do in as little as five minutes by going to medkkevin.com life i have it my wife has it so easy to get it's kind of inexpensive too when you're younger but go check it out mykevin.comlife but when you hear these three things here you're also going to want as much cash as possible to protect yourself or by the dip which if you go to medkevin.com tasty you can get two hundred dollars for free if you deposit two thousand dollars that's a ten percent return on your money in just three months if you deposit your money over there for three months try it it's an amazing brokerage mechanic.com tasty all right so let's now get into the first of a three potential catalyst for the doomsday the first is ethereum 2.0 now i know what you're thinking oh my gosh here we go another uneducated potential ethereum 2.0 withdrawal fund story well actually what we're going to do is we're going to refer to an article from data always who is a superior ethereum bull and has some incredible analysis and we're going to talk about some of the arguments that he makes and then we're going to connect these with potential conclusions in terms of what it could mean for ethereum okay so let's talk about this in case you're not familiar which you should be at this point but that's okay in case you're not familiar at this point ethereum merge is possibly going to come at the absolute worst time for the crypto economy ethereum 2.0 is designed to coordinate the network into the beacon chain by slowly making it impossible to mine or validate crypto through proof of work and instead we'll be going to proof of stake so no more dirty mining will be going to staking starting likely at the end of 2022 with sharding following in 2023 and no i didn't say sharting your pants uh but uh you know if you're worried about your pants you can always go long by checking out morrow as we raise the price again dang how is that for three pitches in three minutes but folks today we have over nine million ethereum tokens locked away waiting to be unlocked hence locked away waiting for the beacon chain and this sets up for a massive potential danger to the crypto economy which would of course coincide with what could possibly be the first great recession since the last great recession in 2008 and given that crypto has never lived through a recession and instead was born out of a recession ignoring obviously like the six-week pandemic recession we had this is interesting the ethereum merged ain't coming at a great time now the developers of ethereum are acutely aware that by having nine million ethereum tokens locked away and then allowing them to unlock upon the staking or the move to proof of stake may flood the market with ethereum at quite literally the worst possible time as such ethereum developers are considering limiting withdrawals to two types of withdrawals first partial withdrawals where validators will be able to draw down to 32 ethereum the minimum that you need to be a staking validator and basically draw down any of the excess and with current estimates of the amount of excess ethereum stakes per validator which isn't actually that much over 32 ethereum validators who want to partially withdraw from the network could probably do so in about 12 to 15 days now of course there will likely be some form of limit on the system in terms of how many withdrawals we could see each day and a certain number of withdrawals per epoch and there are 225 epochs each day and the current estimate according to data always is that we could see somewhere around 800 000 ethereum dumped on the market each week for two and a half weeks but our trading volume right now sits around 4.9 million ethereum traded per week so really adding 800 000 ethereum for a couple weeks would probably only represent an additional pricing pressure of about 16 of supply for about two weeks now that could lead if you compound that to about a 35 a drop in ethereum prices because of this excess supply but the argument that's made in the crypto community is don't worry we'll be able to absorb all of that excess ethereum okay fine but that's partial withdrawals and so now and this is the part that's totally up to speculation we have to determine how many validators who currently have staked ethereum or stakers who are part of validating networks how many of them are going to fully withdraw from the ethereum network versus partially withdraw or just straight up huddle obviously if everyone fully withdrawals will have problems but that's also where ethereum developers will likely have some form of limits currently the limit is five validators can withdraw completely from the network per epoch remember there are 225 epochs per day now this limit could change we might see 10 per epoc at lockup and the estimate here from data data data analysts excuse me is the potential of about a supply of 65 000 to 80 000 ethereum in addition to the partial lock-ups per day that in my opinion would represent an approximately 10 additional supply hit or an additional availability of 10 on the daily traded volume for ethereum that would represent an about an additional 10 supply every day for probably the first few weeks of the ethereum merge which could compound on top of that 32 to 35 percent from partial withdrawals now that doesn't again necessarily mean that prices will come down this much because again people could be buying the dip and we could see a lot of stability here and after all these estimates are being brought to you by a blog post by someone who's really a staunch enthusiast of ethereum and they're clearly very well educated in ethereum well the writer of these estimates themselves calls themselves bullish in fact they say i remain as bullish as ever they do also say that quote a contentious and panicked unlock event with large profit taking could however be market destabilizing and a relatively long lasting event they're in effect warning you of the danger to come now even though they are bullish because they see ethereum as a once in a generation investment opportunity the excess supply that we could see through both partial withdrawals and full withdrawals could substantially destabilize the ethereum network if we don't have a clean bridge and a limitation on how much people can withdraw from the network but the market should be able to absorb it right maybe this is where we get to part two of this video which is the unofficial federal reserve binance nftx see binance whom today bloomberg described as the shitcoin casino with empty offices in dubai and an unregulated gambling coordinator boy that sounds like something a mainstream media outlet would say but first i want to thank today's sponsor moomoo moomoo is an advanced a one-stop trading app that makes it easy for traders to do everything they need to trade stocks mumu helps you monitor market movements perform deep technical analysis and quickly screen for the stocks that meet your criteria and ultimately provides a community where traders can also exchange ideas and they are offering all my viewers up to 10 totally free stocks plus extra free lucid stocks when you open accounts and deposit money using my link down below on top of that they have a 24 7 real-time financial news page that allows you to keep up to date with all the financial news you might need for trades including curated lists of market highlights delivered every morning by moomoo's own editorial team consolidated news feeds from bloomberg dow jones reuters cnbc and other credible news sources all in one place and even a market calendar for events such as earnings reports ipos etc moomoo even has 24 7 customer service or where you can live chat with their team if you need anything so get up to 10 free stocks today get up to 10 free stocks with moomoo today but anyway the ceo of binance just saw his net worth tumble from over 90 billion dollars to just 11 billion dollars and i did say just 11 billion dollars it's still pretty incredible but it represents an 88 decline but anyway these two firms fdx and binance are arguably the biggest in the crypto space and you know what they're doing they are swooping into the rescue when we have problems in the crypto space it's literally exactly what they've been doing as one of the largest crypto hedge funds three ac with up to about 1.18 billion dollars of assets under management because that hedge fund completely disappeared because they probably lost all their money and all that 18 bill went up in smoke especially when in may they told us they only had about three billion dollars left and now they're not even answering their voyage or digital margin call which that's a whole nother story who comes into the rescue again the unofficial fed which i call the unofficial fed ftx and binance there's a problem with ftx and finance though i'm going to talk about that problem in a moment but i just want to hit on that tangent with voyager digital voyager digital the canadian crypto exchange had about 2 billion dollars canadian dollars in lent crypto but of that 666 million so basically a third was being lent to one hedge fund three ac that means they took customer deposits and literally 33 cents approximately out of every dollar they received they lent to one hedge fund that seems grossly irresponsible like how could you not diversify more that's insane that's way too much risk anyway that led over the weekend voyager digital likely to fall under a level to the point where if all their customers wanted to withdraw their money voyager digital wouldn't have it they were upside down likely based on what i saw in the financial statements now ftx and uh the owner of ftx embankment freed came in to bail out voyager with the substantial loan of somewhere between 300 to 500 million dollars the owner of ftx has about a 12 stake in voyager digital with a cost basis of about two dollars and 34 cents for a stock that's now trading for roughly 50 cents ouch this is important to know though because what does it show you it shows you that companies like ftx and binance even though they're trying to be the unofficial fed there's a chance they're throwing really good money after bad even binance got burned by for an amount of 1.6 billion dollars on the tara luna explosion or implosion i should say and these companies right now are going around trying to prop up as many different companies as possible even ftx now providing financing to block fi and rumors circulating including this email that happened to come out of nowhere that uh oh even blockfi might be running into some trouble after getting a bailout from ftx yikes but anyway when companies act as a de facto jerome powell what they do in the short term is they prop up coins they pop prop up tokens and they prevent bankruptcies from happening that should happen the problem with ftx and binance though is they don't have a money printer and while blockfy coinbase robinhood and many firms are laying off individuals finance is pretending they're hiring people not actually hiring people because apparently bloomberg questioned the authenticity of this and that the staff at binance said oh well uh the photo of the ceo of binance uh photoshopped on a model with him uh hiring that was just a joke folks i don't know about you but i feel like we've got two goliaths binance and ftx both of which have a lot of power in the crypto ecosystem and if they run out of money because they keep making investments that aren't that smart like throwing money into voyager digital at two dollars and 34 cents well then at some point they're going to run out of money and if the ceos run out of money because they spent all their money on bailouts for the rest of the crypto economy the crypto economy could face some massive pain the next time we see liquidations of the magnitude that we saw over the last few weeks with billions being eradicated in 24-hour periods so buckle up especially if that same sort of liquidation event happens around the same time that we see the ethereum 2.0 merge but that brings us to fudd case number three stable coins now i've warned about stable coins since the end of 2020 and the fact is they absolutely mask the true amount of leverage that is in the crypto ecosystem most advocates of stable coins like to say that well i have usdc i could redeem it for a dollar at any time and while it's true that one dollar of usdc is technically equal to one dollar it is not true in the event of a panic that's because when you deposit one dollar into an exchange for a stable coin yes you have the right to that one dollar but most people who have money in usdc enable yields yields are only possible when you actually agree to lend out your money you're lending your stablecoin don't kid yourself it is not redeemable for a dollar if it's lent out in a panic your stable coins are not a savings account they are an iou and as long as markets are going up and things are stable your iou can be cashed for a dollar but if you're just the 20th iou in a chain of ious called rehypothecation and the last person in the chain is an 18 billion dollar hedge fund like 3ac your stablecoin uh iou may end up being worthless in the event of a crypto collapse and this is where i believe we face a massive triple threat in the entire crypto ecosystem the ethereum 2.0 merge coming in a recession is absolutely the worst time possible it should be delayed number two the binance ceo and the ceo of ftx are going to run out of money at some point if they have to keep bailing out companies there won't be any money left because there is no money printer and then liquidations will cut deep because nobody's bailing it out and number three when true panic comes stable coin leverage will finally get exposed and folks this is why i urge you to be cautious i'm not here to fud i am here to provide perspective and if you haven't thought about this triple threat consider sharing this video and helping somebody else be aware of it as well and if you have comments to add leave them down below check out those courses with the coupon code expiring tomorrow link down below and folks we'll see you soon bye