원문 보기
editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report mark thank you so much for joining us today all right and this week's st Mendelson markets rapper i really appreciate that you were able to come on today we also have James Anderson co-hosting with us today the first topic I'd like to discuss is the China and US trade war that seems to be developing what is your perspective do you think it can get worse from here in a real trade war actually will develop well I doubt as far as real trade war because I believe that the US will realize that actually it has more to lose than China for China the exports to the US are meaningful but they're not as important as they would have been 40 years ago when I went to Hong Kong in 1973 until the end of the 1980s the saying was if America sneezes Asia catches a cold because up to 70 percent of Asian exports went to the u.s.
directly or indirectly but this is no longer the case nowadays in Asia the largest trading partners are actually Asian countries all Asian countries export more to China then to the US with the exception of India and globally China exports more to commodity producers and to countries that have a free trade agreement with China then to the US so the u.s.
is still an important trading partner but it's no longer the most important trading partner hi your thoughts I know this is more of a short-term question there's a lot of people out there who are US dollar bullish at least in the short to medium term I think there's going to be a rebound I know last year to buy you ten percent versus other large trading fiat currencies do you see any any type of rebellion dxy you're still alive potentially well there has been a big long position in euros and the short position in u.s.
dollars in recent weeks and obviously just to talk about the trade war lead us and see that dollar strengthening but I don't think these things will last very long when you think about it the u.s. under mr. Trump would actually like to make America great again he wants to make America more competitive some is complaining about the weakness of other currencies in the world in others that in his view the dollar is too strong compared to other currencies in the world I'm not sure he can think that far but anyway that is the implication so the last thing the US administration won today is to have a strong dollar you know that makes the US even less competitive so I think that the dollar may strengthen maybe for another month or two and then eventually we can again as it becomes obvious that the other countries with or without tariffs or a trade war remain very competitive now as for the stock market do you believe that asian stocks or specifically chinese stocks are you more bullish on them than the US stocks I think if we I believe we've seen high for the US stock market and global market essentially on January 26 2008 een with the S&P a 2000 872 we're now approximately 200 points lower than we were at the time now the market is unlikely to crash in my opinion but what could easily happen is a market decline as we had between 1969 and 1982 we didn't collapse in those days although we had a major fair market between January 1973 and December 7th for almost two years but we didn't have really a crash it was just sliding a slope of hope where markets would go down and then rebound and they would go down slower than a rebound and go down even more into us I think that may be a scenario that may unfold from 69 to 1982 it looks like you know the Dow a little ratio back then it reached at a point about 1.4 so at the peak in January 1980 the Dow obviously is not the greatest measure of the stock market because it's 30 rotating companies that get changed out all the time depending on how well they're doing I think GE is the only one that still around from the original inception of the it's been a terrible stock that's true but you know I'm just looking even an S&P 500 gold ratio you know right now we're around just 2 or style roughly S&P versus gold but in 1988 hit point two so if we went back to a situation where it was like 1980 that's a 10 multiple of gold versus you know S&P 500 do you foresee that happening let's say in 2020 possibly is that potential something that could be the peak of this well I could see that that's happening again in the sense that the S&P would crossly underperform gold in the years to come that wouldn't surprise me and but the point is it may not happen right away I think it may happen in future they may take maybe a few years until we're there because the belief right now among investors is very strongly geared towards equities globally and especially towards among young investors it's geared to its cryptocurrency at the moment gold and silver are not particularly popular among young investors but I think this will change especially when a major fraud will be revealed in the crypto space that people will lose faith in Christo's as a store of value and that they will again buy gold I mean my advices I don't know when gold will go up I suppose it will go up relative to other assets now there's one point I need to clarify here everybody thinks that asset inflation as we had essentially since 1981 for balance Tom's released in 1981 September 81 and equities August 82 equities rallied over the last 34 years real estate prices went up arts prices went up collectibles went up answers so people and investors are conditioned that this will continue they may have some arguments about which actor to perform the best but they think that this asset inflation will continue but I'd like to introduce an element where maybe all access will go down and gold would go down far less than other aspects or maybe even increase in value that is the possibility serious you're saying extremely deflation area scenario I'm talking not necessarily about the huge price deflation but I'm talking here about a huge upset inflation where at the price is really tank that is a possibility because don't forget and this is a subject that is not discussed all that much which is normal towards the end of a polo market the subject of tech has taken a back step in other words yeah people mentioned the government debt but then they argue well it's so large already and so far it hasn't caught the hit habit you can expand much further and the Fed can expand its balance sheet much further and so that these things is what people believe but may in fact not help asset prices in fact they may eat rice as it rises can you expand on why you see cryptocurrencies falling in the future and people moving out of that space well my sense is that I as a citizen have no idea what these cryptocurrencies should be worse a really no idea it's a little bit like you and I we would print a new currency or a new banknote say a cipher a dollar bank note or one militant road or dot and we would restrict the number of pills that we would print to say a million or ten million or twenty million whatever and our neighbors seeing that we were able to sell these freshly printed banknote is a such a great idea I start my own printing machines e-tron's also something like new paper currency and so on and so forth and the crypto craze has created now more than 1,500 different filter currencies and whether they will all be worth anything happy to take questions I have my reservations about that now turn the one or the other have some value yeah maybe but I don't know what the value will be and if I have no idea what the value will be I'm not terribly interested to iterate a large amount of money in this concept yeah I'm not sure if you're familiar with the doctor I think there was an academic study about mount Goths and the price of Bitcoin going from one hundred fifty dollars to a thousand dollars and it's you can google it I think it's called a price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem and so long a connector study about the data and no one was you know except for the people who ran out Goths no one got indicted for this so my hunch is that Bitcoin traders were just simply emboldened and if you look at the concentration of who owns bitcoins it's only a thousand or so alone about 40% of the Bitcoin in the world so for them to clue together and grant the price up and down to make money futures now on the comics it's possible to make money both ways how much it will be worth what I can what I have observed however and that should be a warning signal I have a house here in the north of Thailand specifically in Chiang Mai and Chiang Mai is a city that consists mostly of people who have no share ownership they never owned single bombs they never trade for exchange and there's just a few maybe you know like a handful of people that I would know that occasionally trade stocks but the bulk of people don't have any interesting stocks have no money to buy stocks and and so on they if they have money they will buy a house but all these people over the last say one year people who never speculated they are now all involved in cryptocurrencies and this is not just happening here in Chiang Mai I get emails from people in Estonia I get emails from people in Hungary and tours in Korea in China anyway in Japan they all gamble on these crystals and whenever the public is so fully involved in one object of speculation it's always a warning signal but anyway the future will tell I don't want to say anything negative about crystals I don't want to say anything positive I think the blockchain technology is here to say but it's not new this was developed ashore and I have no idea about the end value of kryptos I suppose that 90 to 98 percent of crypto currency will be worthless but maybe the one or the other will have some value now moving on here you said you're on it if I heard you're right you're bullish on gold and you think that people will move into gold and silver what is your perspective on it which is better gold or silver now from my technical indicators I was I think silver has probably the greater upside potential but I'd like to qualify my polishness by saying I have been buying gold since the late nineteen eight most of the gold I bought was around $300 an ounce and I continued to buy during the Polo market between 1999 and 2011 and I continued to buy I've never sold an ounce of gold for me the price where is Hiroko slower or higher doesn't change my lifestyle but I want to have some reserves that are not help in paper form and I hold some gold in Switzerland and some here in Asia is there specifically prefer I assume you know gold and some physical but it's in coin form like Krugerrand or there are some coins issued by credits or so so these are type of essentially pure gold investment investments I also got some gold shares yes but not much it hasn't happened yet I think they are again in a range from which they could have say a 30% upside move all right well mark labor thank you so much for joining us today before that you go did you want to assure the viewers any last thoughts you had and where we can find you online well we have a website and thank
Comments 0