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sometimes I've talked about the bounce effect and maybe you haven't heard me on that before so maybe you don't know what that is so I'm just going to take a second to describe what it is the bounce effect is one that I've relied on uh regularly over decades where categories not necessarily over single stock that fall the most in Bear markets tend to bounce the most early in the next bull market and that's the bounce so more or less what commonly happens is in a bear Market people freak out you know that and some categories get hurt more than others for whatever reasons and the more that builds the more people eat eat and freak out about those categories which then once you hit the bottom bounce more in the bounce called the bounce effect that typically lasts eight to about 15 months about 11 months on average we're about eight months now into this bull market uh so there ought to be a few more months ahead I could put some qualifiers on it that might apply this time might not that's about opinion not about fact typically you get a longer bounce when you've had a longer bigger decline the decline last time the 2020 bear Market ending in the end of September beginning of October wasn't as big a bear it was a what I call a cub bear Market it qualified as a bear Market but just by a little bit and it wasn't very long for a bear Market uh starting to be in January and ending then the end of September about nine months long so therefore maybe we don't have quite as long a bounce maybe we're on the short end of how long the balance effect can last what happens after that well after that other fundamentals take over and push the stocks you may remember and consistent with the bounce effect that in 2022 tech stocks got clobbered and were among the worst performing categories value stocked particularly driven by energy did best in the bounce it's been the reverse energy stocks are flagged tech stocks have lead growth has led including places like France and Italy with non-tech growth and values talk to the flag after this we have to come to some fundamental features will the FED get to where they stop raising rates will we see short range being cut will we see the yield curve be less steep maybe unsteapening to the point yoker of being short-term rates being above long-term rates will that yield curve inversion go away usually those things continue to favor growth and Tech will they this time I think so how long I don't know but I would expect the categories that have done the best in this particular bounce to continue to lead at least for a good period of time after the bounce effect is over ]
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