저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 랠리가 투기적 종목 단계로 번지며 생애주기 끝에 가까워졌으니 고베타 투기주 익절과 방어적 포트폴리오 전환이 필요하다. 랠리 흐름: 초기엔 매그니피센트7 등 최강 대형주가 주도했고, 이후 반도체·사이버보안·엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어로 확산됐다. 이어 경기순환주(주택건설·항공우주·철도), 중공업·소재·여행레저, 소매·은행, 제약, 식품으로 순환 상승했다. 금리 인하 기대가 랠리의 연료였다. 개인투자자 유입: 개인 매수가 2022년 이후 최대 수준이며, 후발 투자자들이 빠른 수익을 좇아 투기적 종목·공매도 잔고가 큰 종목(게임스톱식 숏스퀴즈 노림), 암호화폐 관련주로 몰리는 과열 신호가 보인다고 진단했다. 경고 조건: 연준이 매파적 입장을 유지하거나 물가 둔화 수치를 무시하면 가장 투기적인 종목부터 급락할 것이라고 전망했다. 하락의 진앙은 이미 많이 오른 투기주가 될 것이라는 주장이다. 개별 종목: 어펌(공매도 잔고 22%, 10월 말 이후 약 125% 상승)은 익절 권고. 코인베이스(공매도 15%, 81% 상승)는 암호화폐 연동 랠리 후행 매수로 판단해 늦었다고 봤다. 비욘드미트(공매도 45%, 한 달 반 만에 77% 상승)는 숏스퀴즈성 투기로 평가. 리프트(52% 상승)는 장기 경쟁력은 인정하나 단기 과열 여부는 불투명하다고 봤다. 레모네이드(공매도 33%, 60% 이상 상승)·업스타트(48% 상승)는 실적 없는 AI 기대감 랠리로 금리 인하 없이는 주가 정당화가 어렵다고 봤다. 카바나(46% 상승)는 숏커버링 참여 군중에 대한 경고. 로쿠(약 60→100달러대, 공매도 약 10%)는 숏커버링성 매수로 보고 하락 가능성을 언급. 출연자 의견: 시청자 전화 질의에 응답해 셀시어스는 펩시 지분 보유에도 공매도 23%로 공방이 치열해 주의가 필요하다고 답했다. 레이건 (cramer) 등 추가 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
n money welcome to KR America other people my to entertain but educate and teach you so call me at 1800 73 CBC maybe tweet me at Jim Kramer every rally has a life cycle at first it's led by the strongest companies out there right now that's the Magnificent 7 they're still at the Forefront as the market stage decent rally D advancing 173 points as it be climbing 46% NASDAQ getting 70% that's ahead of tomorrow's fed meeting but then as the rally goes on the strength extends to others in the same ballpark think semiconductors cyber security Enterprise software we then get a further broadening out of the rally away from Tech in this this stupendous run buyers Converge on a curious ad mixture of cyclical stocks home builders Aerospace and the railroads Allard as the advance continues more left behind groups start playing catchup think heavy Industries materials travel and Leisure because this rally sented on moderating interest rates the retailers then Advance as they survive on their credit and the credit of their customers therefore they Thrive when rates go lower and then it extends to the bags which got crushed by the fed's rapid fire rate hikes more on Banks later even the drug stocks have joined the parade thanks to takeovers in the gop-1 diabetes and weight loss drugs and then the food stocks throw off the gop1 shackles and they have their day in the Sun finally after all this institutional hoopla we get to our individual so-called retail investors are buying stocks on mass in this case the most since 2022 and that's where we are in the life cycle right now I have to tell you I always hope hope that they go for higher quality companies when these investors come in like the ones we own for the travel trust which you can follow by joining the CBC investing club we don't speculate Le that's not usually what happens these late to the valley investors seek to se see quick wins they often gravitate to just some pure speculation and in a nod to the memesters of old they seek stocks with large short positions trying to engineer another GameStop yeah that stock infamously soared from the single digits to the 400s in a few weeks time so the siren song of an overly shorted stock beckons even if it is a huge money loser at the same time these D buyers want own crypto you know I met with about a 100 individuals this weekend when I signed bottles for my wife's Mescal brand in Dallas Texas and while many wanted to know about our position magnificent s especially Nvidia a preponderance one of my blessing on different cryptocurrencies or crypto to ajacent stocks I couldn't give it to them I never like to see this kind of speculative frenzy because of what it represents remember I'm tracing the life cycle of a rally here and rallies tend to stop once the rank speculation gets too heavy I see that happening now let's go back to the fuel that's kept this rally going the possible peak in interest rates when the FED beats small if it doesn't show any sign of doish if it dismisses the cooler inflation numbers like the today's CPI cons price index you need to brace yourself for a sell off and the epicenter of the decline will not be the solid stocks that deserve to go higher it'll be the most speculative stocks that have already had huge runs what exactly am I talking about here let's get granular okay I'm going to give you some of them I want to start with the firm Holdings that's the buy now pay later outfit they look like roadkills the Federation interest rates people believe a firm's borrowers would default on their short-term loans and the company attracted a legion of short sellers who assume assum the FED would never stop tightening but a firm is run by Max leevin he's a frequent guest on May of money and he's got a very good handle on things not a lot of default so the shorts and 22% of the float is still currently shorter appear to be on the wrong side of the trade when a firm reported a quarter with no real degradation in credit quality they know nothing the Stock's now nearly 125% since the end of October is that sustainable I don't think so but the short Busters imbued with the power of panic short sellers simply don't care if you own a firm guess what I think you should take profit because it's a highly speculate stock that's highly hostage interest rates for me affirms the poster child for this late stage of the rally a money losing company with a risky stock that's up huge because successful short bustering and it could go down huge If the Fed says the wrong thing hey then there's coinbase now people want a stock that gives you the bang of crypto have gravitated to coinbase with its 15% short position and it's in your face attitude toward the SEC the company itself though does not make money the Stock's up 81% since October based on a correlation with the rally and crypto if you buy coinbase now guess what I think you're late to the party hey next let's talk about beyond meat one of the bigger busts of our era these guys seem immunized against profitability hence the 45% short position this one has a real GameStop feel left behind thought to be on his legs no wonder it's up nearly 77% in less than a month and a half what else okay we recently spoke to David richer he's the new CEO of lift which is Uber's much smaller rival once again I was impressed with his vision and I like his execution many people want to see a viable competitor to Uber and I think Li can ultimately break it either despite his continual losses but does the stock deserve a 52% gain since the end of October yes if you think the considerable Bas of short sellers are still frantically covering their positions no if you think that process is almost done I don't know take look I I like I said I like it the company's going to make money but wow what a run hey how about lemonade the insurance company that says it uses artificial intelligence to figure out policies lemonade captivated so many younger investors in the last big speculative wave during covid the company's losing fortunes with a loss of $358 per share expected for this year and that's why 33% of the stocks float is sold short making a clear GameStop like meme Target which is how lemon like lemonade at least 60% since October well not much more than a hope and a vague AI kicker please don't forget upstart a company that uses AI to make loans and seems addicted to losing money that's why the stock plunged to $1 and change in May oh but now it's back up to $35 up 48% just since the end of October without any sign of profit in sight upstart needs actual rate Cuts if his numbers are ever going to catch up to it stock price and I don't think that Cal is coming anytime soon hey then there's carvana many thought the digital use car dealer that struggles to make money was a dead man walking the Schwarz figured that this one was flat on the canvas when the stock sank to $3 and change at the end of last year like GameStop they refused to ring the register and forgetting that Bulls make money and bears make money but Hogs well guess what hogs they get slaughtered the Stock's 46% gain since the end of October is leading a whole different group of hogs to the Oscar Meyer section of the supermarket please take profits finally I have to consider Roku part of the speculative cohort as it's spewing losses no plans to get profitable that said with all this cord cutting people are desperate to find a way to play it and the speculators they've seized on Roku which is why this Stock's going from around $60 to just over $100 since the end of October the short prision isus around 10% of the float that's still a lot of short Sellers and they're clearly hurting it feels like a lot of buying is short covering when it's done I bet the stock heads lower bottom line I just gave you the anatomy of a rally we just don't want it to be an obituary of the rally if stocks are levitating on a combination of short squeezes and Johnny come lately buying and there's not selling from the people who are being greedy right now take it from this onetime obituary writer the funeral par beckons I want to go to Roger Minnesota Roger hey Jim appreciate being on the program I have uh I have two stocks for you today um one of them I just don't know what the heck to do with so I actually sold out of my position and that's Celsius I bought some right after their last earnings report which was another excellent earnings report I mean the company's growing 100% year over- year but stock can't move I don't know if they need to put uh AI behind their ticker symbol or what that'd be something but look I mean here look Celsius really kind of appeals to me because uh pepsico's got a big position in it but there is is a giant 23% short and there are lots of people whispering about how this company's not doing that well I don't know about that I think if Pepsi gets in it then it's fine but I've got to tell you it's the shorts versus Longs and a real tug-of war and I don't like Battlegrounds we've seen the rally extend to some of the most specul spaces in the market it could be an indicated that the life cycle of this rally is nearing its end on M money tonight yesterday we saw the first funding deler from the chips and science act so I'm going to straight to the source with Commerce Secretary gun randoo he had an update on semiconductor our relationship with China and what to expect in the new year then the last couple of months have been pretty bullish for the market with long yields beginning to come back to earth so could this move be sustained or should investor be prepared to handle a changing Market environment I'm going off the charts on the bomb Market to get a sense of where things could be headed and what the heck happened to the IPO Market in the back half of the year I'm giving you my take on the group that seem to have a very promising start to 2023 and then fizzled out so stay whip
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