저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 추가 금리 인상을 하지 않을 것이며 경기 둔화로 모기지 금리가 올해 말 5%대로 하락할 가능성이 크다. 연준 평가: 이번 회의는 매파적 어조였지만 실제로는 동결(pause)이었고, 과거 연준 금리 전망은 크게 빗나간 이력이 있어 신뢰하기 어렵다고 주장. 고용 평가: 고용자 수는 늘었으나 평균 근로시간이 크게 줄어 총 노동투입(고용×근로시간)으로 보면 실질 고용은 약화됐다고 분석. 경기 지표: M2 전년비 역대급 음(-), 선행지수 6개월 연율 -8%, 장단기 금리차(2s10s) 역전 지속 및 1년간 약 100bp 역전 확대, ISM 신규주문·제조업 PMI는 강한 경기위축 영역, 서비스 PMI도 50.3으로 둔화. 실업률은 12개월 이동평균 위로 올라섰고 36개월 이동평균 돌파 시 경기침체 신호로 해석 가능. 금리 경로: 25→50→75→50→25→0bp로 이어지는 추세를 근거로 연준이 다시 인상하지 않을 것으로 봄. 모기지 전망: 경제 둔화가 데이터에 반영되는 데 시간이 걸릴 뿐, 모기지 금리는 다음 주~2개월 내 하락 시작, 연말 전 5%대 복귀 가능성(MBA 등 전문가 전망 인용). 진행자 발언: 구루의 견해를 소개하며 모기지 상담(리파이낸스, ARM, 15년/30년 대출 등)을 홍보. 리스크: 경기 둔화 판단이 틀릴 경우 금리 하락 시점이 지연될 수 있음. 출연자 전망: 금리 하락·경기 둔화 전제 하에 장기 금리 인하를 기대하는 입장.
다듬은 글
we had this week we had the CPI we had the fed and we had some jobs numbers on Thursday and basically mortgage rates are the same today as they were a week ago today which is ranging anywhere between I don't know 6.375 and 6.75 maybe even seven percent depending on points and fees and Etc and where you stand but we want to know we want to know what's going to happen so many of the experts many of the experts are waiting for something to break and the Fed was a little hawkish when they spoke the other day but I'm going to bring on right now Bond Guru I mean he's a guru and he thinks the talk tough talk from the FED doesn't mean that much and I'm gonna bring on Jeffrey gun latch he is phenomenal so don't miss this said hawkish times 10.
what was your take was definitely hawkish in the rhetoric but obviously wasn't hawkish in the action it's the pause it's uh I feel like the FED is getting kind of Mr Magoo like again where the last meeting it was a hike but it was called a dovish hike and now we've got a hawkish pause I wonder what the mix will be in the July meeting because it seems like the unanimity of opinion that we need more rate hikes has been made clear but the path of rate hikes is all over the place I'd like to remind people that the FED has had a bad record of forecasting where the FED funds right is going to be and Jay Powell to his credit pointed that out at the end of his press conference it's interesting to notice that two years ago the forecast for the FED funds rate at the end of 2023 was 50 to 75 basis points was the median Dot Plot so they missed by 450 basis points and even more if they continue to hike which I don't think they're going to do so we seem to have some fed people thinking the rates are going to stay above five for years and some other fed people think it's going down to two and a half so as of a couple meetings ago Jay seemed to have the duck salt in a row everybody was in agreement and now it's like he's trying to herd cats again and he's doing the best he can but I don't understand all of this talk about this strong economy there are so many indicators that are deeply in recessionary territory and people talk about the strength of the labor market and there's been many months of Beats on that but the most recent labor market report which was touted as being very strong was not strong there was a growth in jobs but there was a of significant decrease in average average hours worked and if you take the product of those two number of jobs times average hours worked you kind of get economic Egret output and yes jobs went up but the hours worked felt enough that if hours worked had stayed this same the product of of jobs times hours worked to get to the product that we're at you would have actually had a loss of jobs if hours worked had stayed stable to get this amount of output you would have had more than a hundred thousand jobs lost so that's not really that strong and I don't really understand why the FED is kind of making the same I think mistake that they made a year and a half ago but in Reverse they're not looking at the high frequency data there was a lot of quick commentary after the statement which was a hawkish statement and I think Steve leesman did a nice graphic where he was acting like he was driving a car but looking backwards I think that's a riff on my Mr Magoo theme and I agree that that's what's happening here if you look at real economic indicators there are more of high frequency they're really bad I mean M2 is negative at a level year over year that hasn't been seen in decades leading indicators are negative eight percent over the last six months annualized in the last year the yield curve has been inverted for a long time and is inverted by 100 basis points further twos tens of the past year uh ISM new orders are in deeply recessionary territory ISM Manufacturing PMI is massively recessionary and even Services has given up the ghost going down to 50.3 on the services ISM PMI I'm really hard pressed to find an indicator that's really strong and you can tell me it's employment but the thing that I just referenced about the aggregate product but also the unemployment rate has peaked its head above its 12-month moving average not by a lot but it's above its 12 month moving average now it's not anywhere close to its 36 month moving average which is an absolute lead pipe cinch if it crosses that during a recession that's still up at about five percent but when you think of the three three thirty six month moving average that's three years so three years ago we're talking about the depths of the pandemic and unemployment just fell off you know spiked tremendously and now it's come back down so that's going to be falling precipitously so I don't think the fed's going to hike again I think we've got a trend in place here Scott it went 25 then 50 then 75 for a while then 50 then 25 then zero I don't know maybe I'm just a mathematician or something but I see a trend here and I don't think the fence is going to be raising interest rates again I tweeted that out yeah right after the last meeting one thing about this and I'll stop and you can probe further learning about this this is one of the most uh easy to predict fed meetings of all time I almost feel like we're back four years ago when every meeting you knew they weren't going to raise rates I think it was universally believed that this would be a pause and that this would be a hawker statement to try to offset the the you know the the the the complication of having a financial stress with you know conditions tightening and three bank failures while inflation is still it's still every saying so what Jeffrey is saying that he doesn't he believes that the economy is slowing he believes that the economy is slowing so what does that mean for mortgage rates what that means is that mortgage rates will start to fall lots of the economists The Mortgage Bankers Association lots of really people a lot smarter than me are predicting rates in the fives again before the end of the year now that could start next week it could start next month and maybe two months but rates will fall um the economy is slowing it just takes a little time for the the data to catch up with the numbers and once we see the data and the numbers catching up you're going to see mortgage rates start to fall so if you have any questions about anything having to do with mortgages if you want to know about a refinance and how to consolidate debt with all that extra Equity if you want to know how to about an arm or should I do a 15 year or a 30 year or how does it work on a multi-family and what type of loan should I get you've come to the right place so go to Jerry DeMayo at www.mortgage-zoom.com and we're gonna have an appointment it's gonna look a lot like that and we can go over everything together I can give you all the facts so again thank you again for joining hey that's Jerry a mortgagem thank you again for joining we'll see you next week again this is Jerry de Mayo from mortgage dad zoom.com and we'll see you soon thank you
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