저자: JamesPhilip · 외국인
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2022년 6월 영상의 결론: 제이미 다이먼의 '경제 허리케인' 경고는 틀린 말이 아니며, 인플레이션·QT·유가/디젤 공급 문제·전쟁 등을 고려하면 큰 하락이 올 가능성이 높다는 주장이다. 다만 하락의 강도는 누구도 모른다고 본다. 다이먼 경고의 배경: 댓글에서 흔한 '매수하려고 시장을 떨어뜨리려는 음모론'을 반박한다. 예측이 맞으면 고객 신뢰를 얻어 장기간 수익이 가능하므로, 유명 금융인이 틀린 예측을 반복할 이유가 없다는 논리다. 거시 환경 진단: 양적긴축(QT)이 2022년 6월부터 월 950억 달러 규모로 시작되며, 연준 자산 축소가 금융 여건을 조인다고 봤다. 우크라이나 전쟁과 이란·그리스·터키·중국·대만 등 긴장 요인을 언급했다. 실물·공급 지표: 디젤·가스 가격 급등(중질유 수입 의존 지적), 중국 봉쇄 8주 후 공급망 충격이 2~3개월 뒤 나타날 수 있음, 베이비푸드 품귀, 일부 기업 해고 소식을 열거했다. 신용·주택: 서브프라임 자동차 대출 악화, 금리 인상에 따른 주택시장 냉각과 주택 구매력 악화, 신용카드 금리 및 부채 상승을 위험 신호로 꼽았다. 통화정책 평가: 재닛 옐런 등 학계·정책 당국의 인플레이션 판단을 비판하며, 대규모 유동성 공급이 버블을 만들었고 이를 거두면 긴축 충격이 불가피하다고 주장했다. 투자 태도: 진행자 본인은 투자 조언이 아니라고 밝혔고, 긍정적 전망은 보이지 않아 당분간 신중하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
you know i'm in the gym trying to get a workout in in between deadlifts flipping through the news watching my heart rate drop a little bit and then like whoa whoa what's this and then i see jamie diamond says brace yourself for an economic hurricane it's like all right i'm uh i'm still breathing heavy i just got done i was like all right get done working out i'm gonna go check this out and you know the normal common sense type of stuff that if you look what's going on how we created the everything bubble and where we're at now with inflation gas prices war baby food shortage supply chain shortage diesel fuel like yeah anyone with half a brain can step back and say we're we got problems now you start reading the comments section in which every time i see someone from goldman i see jamie dimon saying something you know ackman ackerman whatever his name is i always look at the comments because there's always the same it's the same thing said over and over again and i find it usually to be pretty stupid and the comment goes you know they're saying this stuff because they want to buy as you sell you know stuff like that they want the market to go down so they can steal your shares and if if they're saying that there's something bad coming then they're probably buying it's always like conspiracy theory ulterior motive type comments which i think is funny because and this is my point if jamie dimon is right about the crash and also if anyone making these comments for that matter right if they predict what's going to happen and make their clients money they'll have those clients for life what is the point of being wrong in the news and making your clients money you're only half right you're still making money for your clients in some ways predicting something is as valuable as actually producing the result if jamie dimon predicts this correctly or if goldman does if anybody does they will ride that wave until they retire they will talk about how they predicted this downturn how they michael michael berry is one of those barry berry screw his name up he's been riding that wave since 2008 right still in the news still has social media falling because he made a prediction and he was right they will ride that thing all the way to the end and people will believe in them so there's actually an intrinsic value and jamie diamond being right on top of any money manager out there that's making their clients money so this whole thought of whatever jamie diamond is doing do the opposite or if he's telling you crash that means he's buying it's like no these people don't want to have a beyond record on bloomberg and cnbc and on tv and on video making constantly wrong predictions then you know customers start losing faith and all arms of their banks right because you know they do a lot of different stuff over there um two main reasons factors right here so-called quantitative tightening or qt schedule to begin this month here we go we'll ramp up to 95 billion a month and reduce bond holdings the other large factory diamonds ukraine war duh look what's going on with gas prices i want to say like diesel prices like i don't think we correct me if i'm wrong i'm not an oil specialist i don't know if we get diesel from the oil sands and the fracking we do i think you gotta you get the heavy crude and we tend to import that that's correct that's why diesel's killing us right now there's no end in sight on this that war is not done you know iran and greece are having issues now greece and turkey like there's a lot of tension going on more talks about you know china and taiwan china's been down for what eight weeks and are just starting to come back online keep in mind when it's supply chain and stuff like that people think because china you know seized up that you instantly feel it you tend to feel those supply chain hits two or three months down the road that's coming down the barrel too starting to hear about some more layoffs i thought i saw karna this morning laying people off because people are probably buying less stuff subprime car loans are starting to take a hit interest rates are going up it's going to hurt the real estate market did we not see this and i'm going to do another episode on janet yellen because i think it's funny it seems like every time you get a phd in the room they screw something up right it's kane and i were on this channel a year ago talking about this stuff anybody who didn't go to college could have made the prediction that there's going to be some kind of crash after you pump in trillions of dollars into the market and then once you pull the plug you think you're going to sustain that level nope you got the inflation and now we're going to be on the downturn on that first point here something else i heard um man i don't know who i was listening to youtube autoplay bunch of finance stuff popping up which i don't give financial advice anyway shape or form it's not what i do just fyi but talking about the bonds you know if the fed and i'm using the numbers from the video i don't i don't have anything sitting here with me if the fed's sitting on let's just say 10 trillion dollars or something and they want to unwind three trillion dollars of that let's say it's bonds the guy was saying that you know they're not gonna unwind those bonds at two percent who's gonna buy bonds at two percent when inflation's eight he's like if you want to get rid of those bonds you're going to have to charge not charge but interest rates are going to have to be an appropriate place based on inflation so he's like seven eight nine percent plus so they think that they're just going to unwind all these assets they're gonna have to unwind them at a certain point so there's a lot of turmoil coming i think jamie dimon sees it um there's no value in him being on the record saying things that are completely wrong all the time i think that's a comment section full of people who never ran any money before who've never had someone manage money on their behalf they just i think they sit around and think about what people with money do and they have no idea what those people do jamie diamond goldman sachs all these people they don't want to be on the record constantly being wrong then no one's ever gonna you know say hey i wanna i wanna put money in my in your bank i wanna put money in your in your investment arm no one's gonna wanna do that so i don't if jamie and diamond's saying this if you see four or five or six of these guys on the same path and then you got janet yellen up there saying that hey i uh i kind of got this inflation thing wrong it's man stop listening to the phds in the room how many of them predicted 2008 go back and look yeah all those economists all those professors all those analysts they all got it wrong so i know at this point you can't trust any academics if you have you know two ounces of brain power left in your head you knew that you pumped in trillions of dollars and that puffed everything up created this massive bubble and when you pull that plug the only way this sustains is if you keep feeding it the money but we're not feeding it the money anymore how do you expect to yield the same results if you don't keep feeding at the same amount of money boom the inflation hits gotta raise rates we crash this thing so anyways who knows right he says you know is it is it going to be a category you know one or two is it going to be you know a massive blowout we'll see but i think that's what it comes down to something's coming how what's the severity nobody knows but to say that there's not going to be some kind of downturn where is where's the light at the end of the tunnel right now food shortage at least baby food shortage issues with gas prices diesel prices got a war going on kovit's still shutting down places massive inflation housing markets starting to cool down interest rates are going up which makes housing more unaffordable credit card debts going up credit card interest rates are going up so there's more money to service that debt car loan rates are going to go up so it's probably going to cars are expensive people aren't going to be able to afford the cars do we not look at all these things and say well throw some monkey pox in there for fun how do you not look back and say oh we got we got some problems in the next 12 months you know where's where's the stick that's going to light the economy on fire and blow gdp out there's no light at the end of that tunnel right now and until then i'm not going to get too excited
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