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뉴욕증시 변동성과 풋옵션 거래량 급증 데이터를 근거로, 관세 우려에 따른 공포는 과도하며 실제 조정(correction)에 그쳐 곧 반등할 가능성이 크다고 주장. 투기적 풋옵션 매수보다 우량주 장기 보유를 권고. AMD는 ZT시스템 인수 등으로 엔비디아의 강력한 경쟁자이며 장기 상승 여력이 크다고 평가. 금은 실질 수익이 없는 상품이라 선호하지 않음. 메타·페이팔을 다음 매수 후보로 언급하고 포트폴리오 손실을 공개.
다듬은 글
welcome to my channel 10x investor I hope you guys are all having a great day although the markets say otherwise uh today I want to discuss a few things about um what's going on in the markets what can you anticipate going forward and I'll go into some key u metrics that I think are really important to watch out for going forward and what uh markets are kind of going to face in the next uh few days so I want to start off with this interesting quote the real hero is the man who fights even though he's scared George pattern um the reason why I chose this quote for today is because you look at the markets and markets are not really you know they're not stable enough for a a value investor like me or you to go into the market with full confidence and I think it speaks for the market itself like if you look at NASDAQ today it dropped initially in the morning it was in the 1600's range and then climbed all the way back and I would like to in upcoming videos in the next day or two I'd like to really talk about why I don't like to invest before 10 a.m.
just because the market volatility is so high in the first 30 minutes you don't really get any sense of how things are going in the forward but you know if you are a long-term investor like you or me and it doesn't really matter what when you invest if you're waiting for you know three four five years for the gains to see but just wanted to let you know it's just High volatility High uh price fluctuations going on in the first half half hour so anyways let's uh start off with the video uh here we have this this is such an interesting data that I saw this morning from Mumu so this shows they put options volume um and the highest uh volume that uh during each like you know periods uh since over the past 15 years so this was like whenever it reaches the historic highs of the put volume this is in millions and then it compares to how the S&P 500 performed in the next 5 days and next 30 days so in 2010 we had that 12, 755 Millions put uh option volume and then the next 5 days S&P 500 dropped down 2% and then next 30 days it was minus 5% and then it happened again in 2011 reached almost 20,000 and then next 5 Days 7 6.5% next 30 days 8% and you seen 2020 again reached pretty high 22 almost 22,000 million options volume and then you see that next 5 days 6% and the next 30 days minus 6.52% and then again in 2022 in September 28 this is the craziest bare Market that happened in the recent times look at that 25 million almost 25 million and then you see in the next 5 days S&P 500 raising actually about 1.73% and the next 30 days 8% 2024 August 7 this was like seven months ago where it reached 28.8 million put options when volume and look at that S&P 500 grew 5% in the next 5 days and then 10% in the next 30 days this is this is insane and this is when like August 7 2024 I was seeing the news this is when lot of politic things going on out there so um I don't really uh I think it was just like a market reacting to what what may have happen um so in November but then again you see how the market Market just bounced back real fast um so and then 2025 March 10th we reached 30.
31 million inut options and we're just waiting on to see how the S&P 500 is going to perform in the next 5 days next 30 days well next 5 days obviously reached pretty low and then next 30 days we have to wait till April 10th to see how it was and during March I would say this number has definitely hit record highs even higher than this because people everybody's bearish and people that want to make try to make quick money they're going to go and buy those put options that are expiring you know two months three months down down the road and then you have a quick bounce back I mean people are going to be screwed especially you buy these put options right now such a high prices premium prices and then you're going to go to like market for the next three months without much uh clear data of earnings like weakening I mean the guidance is a little bit weak yeah sure but the numbers right now for the current quarters especially if you see like Lululemon if you see um other retails they're not doing bad if you look at the total retail is has risen higher in February the spending has risen point 0.4% if you want to go and look at that data so the spending hasn't really there's no real data suggesting that this spending has come down in consecutive months January yes little bit down but February it bounced back up so people are just speculating just reacting to speculation that tariffs is going to do some crazy thing to the market it's going to put us into recessions everybody's going to um all these companies are going to crash and we're going to have just bad bad times for the next 100 years but that's not the case they're going to bounce back look at that 2024 they the most recent time 10% what happens if the market goes back up 10% in the next 30 days what do you think is going to happen to this 31 million put options that everybody just bought they're going to go broke next 5 days S&P 500 if it reaches like after April 2nd The Liberation day uh thing that Trump was talking about imagine if after April 2nd all the investors are just say that ah screw it I'm going to go back in all these prices that you see in the stocks right now is so cheap that I'm just going to buy everything these guys are screwed so the reason why I brought this up is because I don't want you guys to depend on these short-term swings and putting your money in places where there's no guarantee you look at a new company you know or you find this new stock um and you do all your due diligence research about it it's a good company good growth um but it's being beaten down you trust in the company put your money in the company buy the actual stock because you will always have the stock you're are not going to have your options your options are going to expire worth less and you're going to lose all your money don't do it I've learned this mistake uh the hard way and I'm telling you guys don't go into options unless you're 100% sure unless when everybody's so greedy and um markets are at all-time level highs then maybe you know you look at what is really expensive in the market out there you look at their forward PE and it's just really close to the uh trailing PE then you know those are the moves that you make um but it's not something that you should be depending your uh your long-term wealth creation on these put options this is just these are gamblers so next I want to talk about is this is the S&P 500 chart um comparing with the Dow Jones and NASDAQ in the year-to-date market and if you look at this um NASDAQ is down 10% S&P down 5% and then you see um Dow Jones is just down 1.28% so if you say this first three months of of the market is like so bad the indexes don't really show much right so the indexes just you know they're not that crazy down like S&P fin is only down 4.6% but everybody is just freaking out because like their retail stocks if you look at their retail stocks they're down a lot a lot so I just want to bring this graph out if you look at this 52 week range for like HS uh um Alibaba Alibaba not so much but um the stock market all these like these it stocks they're all in the 52 like the 52 Week lows if you look at it's below that range majority of them and then I want to bring out the um these major company stocks and if you look at that more than half of them are below Dexcom you know um I think this is um mongod DB look mongod DB is at 52 week low you know symbiotic the AI like cyber um um cyber protection software 52 we low see majority of these companies are like almost close to their 52 week lows and but then you see that um S&P 500 has only dropped 5% so the reason people people are so afraid of this current market right now is because their stocks where you know the Sheep the Sheep followed um and bought all these stocks at such a high high valuations they got wrecked they really got wrecked and that's kind of the reason why you they feel so much effect of this uh stock market um correction it's not a crash it's a correction because if you want a crash you want want S&P 5 to go down 20% NASDAQ to go down 20% you need to see Meta go down 50% you need to see Amazon probably go down 40% Apple go down about 40% Google 40% like no no you're not going to see that good luck you if you just tell me that meta might go down to 300 wonderful wonderful what am I going to do next thing is buy buy more buy as much as you can so you're not going to see much of these moves as much without real data coming up today Microsoft hit 52 week lows man you know it hit 367 and then bounced back up to 375 lot of these stocks today if you look at it you know uh Meta Meta dropped to 555 $25 below the closing rate and bounce right back up why because people know the real investors they have the retail investors have the money they're waiting they're waiting for these low levels and they're going to buy buy buy and then you get these like Noob investors like new to the market and they're like oh my God it crashed down I'm just going to sell everything here and just like hope that it's going to go down even more and then I'll buy no we screwed up screw up pretty fast this Market K so I'm telling you guys because I made those mistakes and so you guys can learn from it the next I want to talk about is uh AMD uh we got CEO Lisa Sue um went on to Yahoo finance today and talk talked with uh Brian SOI and so I saw this video and I just want to uh just speak few things about this video um it I thought it was just a great uh interview she really spoke about um the ZT systems that was um uh that was acquired recently by AMD she spoke about what what the tariffs really um are how the tariffs are going to impact uh AMD and also showed how the company is really like positioned well going forward to expand on um um uh EXP into like Large Scale Models so I'm just trying to find the this um this interview that happened today and it was just amazing and I think everybody should watch it at least people that have interest in U AMD here see here this is the one and if you see here she says that the need for compute continues to be immense and we see that throughout all of our customers globally and we are going to continue to invest strongly in this area because I think this is single most important technology I like to say it's the single most important technology of the last 50 years um and more importantly they they closed down the deal with the ZT system so they closed it today was successfully uh acquired by AMD uh it was it was first announced in August of 2024 and so there they have it they have ZT systems now ZT systems is basically a engineering and Manufacturing uh company special specialized in the compute and Storage Solutions tailored for like hyperscale cloud computing and internet infrastructure providers and their product offerings are just vast web services analytics content delivery and integrated rack level systems which is a direct competition to what Nvidia is doing right now so AMD got their you know CPUs they got their gpus and they got their uh ZT scaler to build these huge massive data centers and now they have this um Roc um uh Software System that go with the with their chips so they're like basically having the positioning themselves so well and strong competitor to Nvidia and you don't be surprised if NV if AMD just goes beyond5 $600 in the near future in the next um couple of years because there is no other competitor to Nvidia gpus other than AMD period there's there's really no other tell me one company in the world that builds ships that other companies are buying because nvidia's chips are too expensive or that nvidia's chips are just not available it's AMD they're buying AMD chips like meta is buying AMD chips uh Amazon is buying AMD chips so this is AMD shouldn't be thought of as a uh oh it's a loser company it's Advanced money deser no it's very well positioned going forward and it has a huge huge upside um so I'll do a detailed um research on AMD and so you guys can kind of get to know what um what you're getting your hands into so next on the list is I want to talk about gold man gold so gold is definitely like you know ripping up and up and up and up it's at 3160 uh per ounce so I feel like you know not too long ago in 2023 like gold was like 2,200 or you know it was so cheap and now it's like 3,100 but I'm not a gold investor because um if I were to buy a kilo of gold the value of the gold is going to go high but it's not it's not producing any income for me it's not a company um you just own a piece of metal and the the Rarity of the metal is what causes the price to go up so it's not a an actual like a company or real estate or anything it's just it's a commodity so you just anticipate and hope that this uh this finite amount of metal uh demand goes up so the price goes up and so but it's crazy see I I don't really like to see Commodities to really go up and up and up because if people only invest in Commodities when they know that markets are not going to do really well and that's kind of the reason but again you know we have such a high demand in other areas like chip building where you need gold you need like all these data centers infrastructure building where you need a little bit of gold so that could possibly what be why but there're hundreds of reasons right now you can see these markets are not doing too great but hey you know what they dropped uh in the beginning of the market open but yeah it was a nice climb back up you know they don't they don't want to see the markets down consumers and the retail investors and they know they're like ah no this is just this is just a foul play not I'm they're not buying it know if today is the fact that investors are not buying this crash it was not some like drastic up Piller and this is a normal like very well positioned nice linear graph if you look at that throughout the entire day so I believe that uh I I don't ever underestimate uh United us uh consumers they're very resilient they're going to buy they're going to buy more and they're going to keep the economy growing okay next up on the list is uh I want to show you guys this this is the AI a aii investment sentiment and they've been doing this research for over like 50 years now and if you look at um the sentiment on average it's about 37.5% bullish 31% bearish and then 31.5% is neutral okay if you look at since the beginning of March people are rating the sentiment as more bearish 57.1% 59.2% on March 12th 58.1% on March 19th but if you notice this this is starting to come down so I see that people are more bullish it's like a one of big jumps just you know went it's almost at the average I mean there's it's just 10% more I mean it grew about 6% in in one week so I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes up to like 32 this next coming week and then next thing you know it's like 40% and then April 2nd happens nothing happens to the market and everybody's like all right time to buy buy buy buy and then you see these meta stock meta Amazon going up to like 700 2 240 250 and so that's the main reason you can't really go uh and fear you know fear the markets because the real hero is the man who fights even though he's scared so you got to really understand these markets you know they'll set you up and then you lose it and then at $700 meta everybody's going to start buying in oh it's going to go back up it's going to go back up but guess what you just missed a chance at 555 and you're gonna buy buy the same amount of company for $150 more so don't make that mistake it's a good company buy it you know what if it goes to $500 who cares buy more it's a good company 3.5 billion people using it every day between WhatsApp Facebook Instagram they have their um meta worse developing they're investing a lot in AI so use analytics and invest in a good company NeXT on the list is here we got the fear and greed Index this is a CNN um greed and fear index and it's been going on for a long time and you can always see like you know where is the markets you know shifting towards are they at extreme greed or they like extreme fear look at this one year ago that's exem greedy Market did very greedy every every single day you see like U stocks going higher and higher and higher and higher and then what do you see now extreme fear extreme fear and whenever I see this fear and greed index I there's one quote that I always always think of be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful and really there's there's nothing better to say than looking at this you you can just invest into the market just looking at this you know buy spy or shd or QQQ you you like to do more research go look at these stocks you know so PayPal meta these are my next buys you know I'm just waiting for my paycheck and boom going into all of them and I'll I'll release a video and I'll give a detail explanation of why I bought each one of those um and next is is the two golden rules of investing I want to show you guys is one is always have more income than expenses um this is nothing nothing more nothing more than like just absolute truth um and also if you look at this one of my favorite favorite person's Channel called Financial education and the guy who does it his name is Jeremy I don't know how to say his last name but he is videos are just absolutely fantastic and uh when I saw it like I always know that M have more income than expenses always because you always want to buy putting it into the market you see you know you you look at what stocks are doing really well um in your portfolio and they're just reaching really highs really highs you kind of got your target you know maybe take some profits away you know you see Meta one day reaching like you know 1300 1400 p ratio of 40 but then 10e average is like 25 time to like take some profits you know sell out 10 20 shares and then go buy something that's like oh uh for example Nike with you know P of 22 uh they're buying back shares positioned well New Management changes go buy it by and then Nike is going to go to like $150 sell Nike maybe the valuation is too high at that time go buy something else it's the cycle it's a cycle don't not follow Wall Street and other investors that are just saying things do your own research and the second rule is um patience you got to be patient in this game this game is um is is played by played at a high level and if you do your research well and you go and uh you stay patient you're going to weaken such high rewards in this in stock market there's really nothing else that um it's going to be like better than there's no other tell me one one other place where you can make more money than stock market without getting lucky I don't I don't see it so I just wanted to show you before I end off here my portfolio update um I didn't buy anything new it's the same amount of stocks I have AMD 160 cake 100 Celsius 60 elf 100 ubot TV 300 Nike 62 shares I think the next one that's going to be on this list is PayPal and meta so those two I'm going to add pretty soon depending on how they do next week or two so right now today's loss is $246 um and I always like to compare it just a little bit with the S&P 500 in NASDAQ just to see how I did comparatively and um so far you know obviously uh couldn't beat the market today but that's okay I think overall if these stocks that I have here goes up to the level that I see it in the next five 10 years I'm definitely going to beat the market no doubt about it I'm G to beat the market um so thank you so much guys for joining in today and I really appreciate it for clicking on my video and watching it till the end please please press that like button and subscribe to the channel for um for new video tomorrow I'm going to be releasing a video every single day so stay tuned thank you
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