저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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Howard Marks의 2022년 1월 메모 'Selling Out'을 소개하는 영상으로, 시장 하락기에 대한 투자자 태도를 다룬다. 메모의 핵심: 매도는 투자 과정의 불가피한 일부이지만, 대부분의 투자자는 과도하게 거래한다. 잘못된 매도 이유: 주가가 올랐거나 내렸다는 이유만으로 파는 것은 비논리적이다. 아마존 사례: 1998년 약 5달러 매수 후 여러 번 큰 하락을 겪었지만 장기 보유 시 수백만 달러 수익이 났을 것이라는 예시를 제시한다. 매도가 정당한 경우: 4% 룰에 따라 자산을 인출하는 단계, 상속 목적이 아닌 생활비 필요, 더 나은 투자 기회로의 자금 이동. 투자 논리 점검: 매수 시 이유를 기록하고 주기적으로 재검토해야 하며, 투자 논리가 약해졌을 때만 매도가 적절하다. 결론: 가격 하락만을 이유로 파는 것은 터무니없으며, 논리가 유효하고 여유 자금이 있다면 매수를 고려해야 한다. 영상 출연자는 채널 운영자 한 명으로 보이며, 투자 예측이나 특정 종목 방향성 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
hal marx is a sort of person in the finance world who you should be aware of when he speaks we listen hey listen hello i'm howard marks marx has been writing memos to the clients of oaktree his global asset management firm which specializes in alternative investment strategies for 40 years and they're full of wisdom to aid any investor so this is the first video in a series dedicated to these periodic writings of great investors like marx's memos and warren buffett's letters to shareholders there are a lot of brilliant people sharing a lot of wisdom which is more valuable to you than the youtubers you see on this platform even me i have put a link in the description to how mark's memo which you really should read penn just over two weeks ago on the 13th of january marx's memo is titled selling out and the timing of this memo is no accident the s p 500 is down over seven percent in the two weeks of trading that followed this memo's publication and all signs indicate that it could continue to drop as investors continue to sell out in the memo marx describes the act of selling as an inescapable part of the investment process but he also notes that most investors simply trade too much hilariously marx points out that there are two main reasons that see investors sell their holdings are there are or they're down but both are really illogical when you think about it it doesn't make any sense to sell shares simply because you're up or down as the only reason marx tells of a witty and to the point remark between himself and a friend when discussing how much the ringe family paid for the entire area of malibu in 1892 a staggering three hundred thousand dollars when the collective value in the area today would be worth over billions his friend remarked how much he would have enjoyed boarding malibu for three hundred thousand dollars to which marx responded critically you would have sold it when it got to six hundred thousand there is a lot of truth in this marx use the example of amazon as a stock to put to readers to challenge them to think honestly about what they would have done if you had bought in at around five dollars at the beginning of 1998 would you have sold it when only 15 months later it was above 100 in april 1999 or maybe at 50 in may 2000 after there had been sell-offs you could have held it past may 2000 for seven years and it would have spent most of that time down and after this we can look at any point in time and think honestly would you have kept those shares because if you had bought ten thousand dollars worth of shares at the beginning of 1998 when you were 30 years old and 15 years later you're up over half a million dollars well you've done pretty damn well you could have sold it and taken a huge windfall but here's where things get really crazy if you had held that initial ten thousand dollar investment through that and all the huge rises since then to the beginning of this year you would have been up over six and a half million dollars even after all the recent sell-offs you're still up over five and a half million and no matter what happens in the next few months long-term investors will probably well served by holding amazon because the company's fundamentals really haven't changed the last two weeks even if interest rates and inflation is rising and if you buy those shares now saving nearly 20 percent from the price the beginning of the year as still goes down if you're a long-term investor then this probably doesn't matter is the long-term viability of the company something you still believe in great keep buying so when should you sell sell 25 there are a few times where this can make sense if you're finishing up that is you're someone who subscribes to the four percent rule then selling down will be an obvious and unavoidable part of the strategy unless you are a dividend investor who intends to leave all of their shareholdings to their estate at the end of things then you're going to need to sell your shares at some point because if your lifestyle or stage in life demands it you might also want to sell because of the opportunity cost at the end of the day if you find a better investment and you're confident of that selling to move funds into that opportunity does make sense yes thank you you will get rich quick we all will as marx says it's reasonable to reduce or eliminate existing holdings to make room for such opportunities if these trends continue finally it will always make sense to sell your investment thesis seems less valid i would like you to crunch those numbers again it's programmed there's no such thing just crunch them just crunch them please crunch did it help here is the tough and all-important point where things do get a little bit gray when you make an investment whether it's an individual share a bond property or even an index fund you should write down record the reasons for that decision and review it periodically and again write down and record your reasons for holding this is a small part of your investment thesis and if that thesis and information seems less valid than it did previously and or the probability that it will prove accurate has declined selling some or all of the holding is probably appropriate so if you look at the investment now and determine the long-term prospects for amazon are not what you wrote down back in 1998 and you have reviewed that since well maybe it makes sense to sell but just selling because the price is dropping is ludicrous if you have the excess income then your periodic review of the share affirms your investment thesis you should be buying shut up and take my money as per the usual youtube standard guys if you like this video please do like comment subscribe as a new channel we really appreciate your support
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