저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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짐 크레이머의 종목 추천 성과는 시장 대비 열세이며 위험조정 기준으로도 불리하다는 연구 결과를 소개한 영상이다. 진행 배경: 크레이머의 이력(하버드 로스쿨, 골드만삭스, 헤지펀드, TheStreet.com, 'Mad Money' 방송)을 정리하고, 그의 추천 종목을 반대로 따르는 'Inverse Kramer ETF'가 밈으로 확산되어 실제 상품 신청(Tuttle Capital, 20~25종목 동일가중)까지 이뤄졌다고 설명한다. 와튼스쿨 연구(2010~2026 아닌 17년, 2010년 초 기준): 크레이머 추천 연환산 수익률 4.08% vs S&P500 7.07%로 열세. 현금 비중 약 50%와 자선신탁 배당 기부가 수익률을 낮춘 요인으로 지목됨. 위험 지표: 액션얼러츠 플러스 포트폴리오 표준편차 17.65, 샤프비율 0.16 vs S&P500 14.6, 0.41. 같은 수익에 더 큰 위험을 떠안았다는 결론. 펜실베이니아주립대 Sandler 논문(2013): 2010년 추천 종목 수익률은 S&P500(10.13%)보다 높은 14.93%였으나 위험 조정 시 추천 종목의 47.46%만 시장을 상회. 추천 전 5일간 상승 종목이 많아 모멘텀 성향으로 분석됨. 단기 활용 가능성: 2022년 첫 30개 추천 중 1일차 60% 수익, 5일 보유 전략 시 연 환산 약 78% 수익 시뮬레이션이 제시됨(단기 신호로서의 가능성, 장기 종목 선정 능력과는 구분). 크레이머 개인 자산: 금·암호화폐 5%, 국내 인덱스 5%, 해외 인덱스 40%, 현금 50%이며 개별 종목은 자선신탁 외 미보유. 결론: 크레이머는 종목 선정 전문가로 보기 어렵고 ETF는 밈 수준에 머무를 것이나, 그에 대한 비난이 전부 정당하지는 않다는 입장.
다듬은 글
whether Wall Street bets or Twitter everyone loves to dunk on Jim Cramer just take a look at the Kramer tracker Twitter page who has amassed over 162 000 followers or the multitude of memes posted almost daily on Wall Street bets but this begs the question is Kramer really as bad as everyone seems to think he is foreign Joseph Kramer was born February 10th of 1955 in windmoor Pennsylvania Cramer took an interest in stocks from a very young age as his parents have stated that he would memorize stock symbols and organize an imaginary portfolio Cramer graduated Harvard in 77 where he would go on to work as a journalist in Florida after going back to Harvard for law school in 81 Cramer would ReDiscover his love for investing shortly after he would land his first client Martin Perez who would give him 500 000 to invest he was so successful managing Perez's money that he leveraged it into landing a job at Goldman Sachs in 1984.
shortly after graduating from Harvard Law after three years at Goldman Sachs Kramer decided to open his own hedge fund in 1987 by the name of Kramer Levy partners he would go on to regularly earn 10 million dollars per year from the hedge fund Kramer and Perez had also founded their own financial analysis website thestreet.com in 1996.
Kramer would go on to leave the hedge fund in 2000 in favor of getting into the entertainment business he would host his own radio show Jim Cramer's real money this of course segued into the infamous mad money in 2005. my mission is simple to make you money all investors there's always a homework at summer and I promise to help you find it bad money Starts Now for those that don't know an ETF or an exchange traded fund is an investment fund that allows you to buy a large basket of stocks and or Bonds in one purchase at Kramer tracker on Twitter or is the page is better known inverse Kramer ETF has gained enormous popularity this along with the concept of an inverse Kramer ATF being pitched constantly on Wall Street bets has sparked genuine interest in one coming to Market I'm sure that everyone expected this concept to Simply remain a meme and be good for a laugh but it is actually happening Tuttle Capital Management has officially filed two prospectuses for Kramer tracking ETFs consisting of one the inverse Kramer ATF and two the long Kramer ETF according to Tuttle Capital these ETFs will hold 20 to 25 Kramer stock picks equally weighted but is all of this hate and are all of the memes Justified will these ETFs offer any real return let's dive into Kramer's stock recommendation history the most comprehensive examination of Jim Cramer's performance to date is known as the Wharton School study the study was co-authored by research assistant Jonathan Hartley and graduate statistician Matthew Olson at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania the performance and risk metrics of Jim Cramer's recommendations as well as those of his action alerts plus and charitable trust portfolios were evaluated in the study which was published in the Journal of retirement Olson and Hartley built on a number of previous Studies by combing through 17 years worth of data from the beginning of 2010 Jim Cramer's performance was in line with that of the S P 500 however as the calendar changed from 2010 to 2011 the gap between the returns of his recommendations and the S P 500 began to widen the annualized performance of Kramer's recommendations was just 4.08 percent at the end of the 17-year period the S P 500 experienced annualized gains of 7.07 during the same time period however in this comparison one significant aspect of Kramer's investment style was to its disadvantage keep in mind that there wasn't a spread between Kramer's picks and The Benchmark index until the middle of 2010.
the global economy had just begun to recover from the financial crisis of 2008 at this point the stock market was recovering dramatically from recent declines as the Federal Reserve continued its monetary policy of lowering interest rates and increasing fundings for its Bond buying program so why did Kramer lose ground to the S P 500 during this time it has to do with his goals for asset allocation Kramer has long advocated holding substantial cash reserves in fact cash and cash equivalents account for approximately half of his portfolio this means that Kramer was not fully exposed to the Market's recovery from one of the worst economic recessions in history which hurt his long-term performance significantly in addition Kramer was hurt by his charitable strategy in the charitable trust portfolio this is because rather than being reinvested all portfolio dividends and distributions are donated to charity giving Kramer's strong cash positions it is doubtful that the dividends would have been significant enough to keep Kramer's port folio in line with the s p but the reinvestments would have reduced the Gap slightly no matter what his money position or how he manages profits the investigation discovered that Kramer faces huge challenges in light of standard deviation and sharp proportion information the action alerts plus portfolio had a standard deviation of 17.65 and a sharp ratio of 0.16 according to the study for the S P 500 those values were 14.6 and 0.41 during the same time period there are two reasons why this is bad for Kramer the standard deviation is a proportion of instability which is one more method for saying Market risk the fact that Kramer's standard deviation is higher indicates that during the assessment period his portfolio was more vulnerable to volatility than the S P 500 indicating that greater risks were being taken the sharp ratio was created to measure portfolio's risk and reward characteristics the sharp ratio data indicate that compared to an S P 500 Index Fund Kramer took on more risks for a lower potential return in light of this data the typical investor should not follow Kramer's performance Kramer hasn't just been hurt by his desire to keep a huge cash position and choice not to reinvest profits he's likewise hurt by his desire to acknowledge bigger dangers in any event when the potential prices don't pile up Jeffrey Sandler a finance student at the Pennsylvania State University submitted a partial thesis in 2013.
the purpose of the thesis was to examine the data to determine whether Kramer's Fame was so great that his predictions resulted in movement moving in the direction he predicted within a day or less Sandler evaluated Kramer's recommendations through 2010. additionally he discovered a few intriguing data points Sandler observed that by far most of the stocks were moving vertically for the five days proceeding Kramer's suggestions this suggested that Kramer is a momentum and positive feedback Trader because he tends to focus on stocks that are already Rising one day returns were positive for just over 56 percent of Jim Cramer's stock recommendations his picks had an average one-day return of 0.42 percent the investigation discovered that north of a one-month time frame Cramer's picks delivered a normal return of 0.61 with a 51.09 success rate in 2010 Kramer's picks brought about a 14.93 yearly return beating the s p 500's 10.13 returns 61.5 percent of his stock picks produce benefits in 2010.
everything looks great that is until risk is taken into account only 47.46 percent of his picks outperform the market when risk is taken into account comparing this to the study from the Wharton School is helpful because the findings of the studies are essentially the same Jim Cramer's picks underperformed the market on a risk-adjusted basis however the differences between the two studies demonstrate the significance of the time Horizon in 2010 Kramer's ability to take risks paid off as he realized gains that outpaced the market as a whole however his tendency to take unjustified risks likely to offset his extremely high cash balance has adversely affected his performance over time in point of fact the data suggests that the S P 500 will ultimately outperform your portfolio if you follow Jim Cramer's example perhaps this is why Kramer doesn't always follow his own advice in an interview with CNBC Kramer made it clear how he invests his own personal funds he invests five percent in gold and cryptocurrency five percent in domestic index funds 40 in international index funds and 50 in cash except for his charitable trust Kramer does not purchase individual stocks however you can profit from his stock recommendations information from different examinations recommend that Kramer's calls frequently are beneficial temporarily in 2022 60 of his first 30 calls were profitable after day one of the 30 picks there were six instances where a trade that would have been unsuccessful on the first day ended up being profitable on the fifth day this suggests that it might be beneficial to use Kramer's calls as signals for short-term Trading in theory you could buy the stock when he calls if the trade is already profitable the following day you should close your position and take your profits if not remain patient for a few days more and resign your position on day five your Returns on the first 30 Kramer picks in 2022 would have averaged 1.5 percent in just five days each if you had followed this strategy that amounts to gains of 78 annually overall the data suggests that Jim Cramer is by no means a stock picking expert that being said the ETF should remain a meme and all of the hate towards Jim Cramer simply is not justified foreign
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