저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 JC페니 투자 실패를 인정하며, 경영진 교체와 가격 전략 실패로 회사가 몰락했다고 설명한다. 투자 배경: 2010년경 JC페니 주가는 약 20달러로 영업이익의 약 4배에 거래됐고, 비핵심자산이 많았으며 1만 1200만 평방피트 규모의 부동산을 보유한 점을 매력으로 봤다. 애크먼은 지분 16%를 매입했고 친구와 합쳐 약 26%를 보유하며 이사회에 합류했다. 경영진 교체: 이사회가 CEO 승계를 논의하던 중 론 존슨(애플 스토어 설계자, 타겟 출신)을 영입했다. 존슨은 애플 제한주식 1억 달러를 포기하고 5000만 달러를 보상받았으며, 자기 돈 5000만 달러로 옵션을 매입했다. 전략 실패: 존슨은 약 10억 달러의 비용 절감과 비핵심자산 약 6억 달러 매각에는 성공했다. 그러나 '고정가 정책'을 전국에 한꺼번에 도입하면서 쿠폰과 할인 행사를 없앴고, 고객의 약 3분의 1이 이탈했다. 소매업의 영업 레버리지는 역으로 작용해 큰 손실이 발생했고, 취임 15개월 만에 경영진을 교체해야 했다. 리스크/교훈: 지배구조와 창업자 사후 기업 쇠퇴의 상관관계, 시험 없이 전국 확대한 전략의 위험성을 강조했다. 출연자 전망에 대한 구체적 미래 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
jcpenney is a company uh that we invested in that we knew on the way in was a much higher risk situation than a canadian pacific so jcpenney for those of you not familiar is 112 year old american sort of iconic retailer that's certainly way past its prime it probably peaked 25 or 30 years ago again another example he had james cash penny who founded the company he died i think in the early 70s and there's a pretty good correlation between when the founder goes and when the company goes um and part of that has to do with governance which is a topic i'm sure we'll get to but the time we invested jcpenney stock was down from 80 to about 20 a share it was trading at about four times operating income it had lots of assets lying around in the company that were non-core assets it had a very bloated expense base and it was generating very little sales per square foot it was a very underachieving retailer and part of that is the brand had become somewhat tired and they had gone to a very highly discount oriented model where they'd mark a address at forty dollars and they wouldn't sell any of that price and a week later they'd market to 20 and they probably wouldn't sell many at that price and then they would send you a coupon where you got ten dollars off and then start to sell a few and then if you use your credit card you got four dollars off and if you bought this moment you get another five dollars off and eventually it was you know eight bucks or whatever and they sell a lot of them at that price and the thesis was um this company has actually still a brand all faded uh restorable and uh because they were created over the last 112 years they actually own about 112 million square feet of some of the best real estate in the shopping mall and the shopping malls uh in the shopping real estate industry they own or have very long term leaseholds at very low rents look this is a great platform to rebuild the company and we bought a 16 stake in the company uh we i was invited to join the board i joined the board with uh a friend who bought 10 along with us so we owned together 26 of the company we both joined the board we were two of eleven directors and the ceo was 64 and the board was very much focused on succession as any board should be generally but particularly when they're ceos in his mid-60s and uh we helped the board with succession and there was a candidate uh that kept surfacing as the best guy in retail and this guy's name is ron johnson and he had an ideal background he didn't go to the oxford business school but he got saeed he went to harvard business school and he graduated he went to work for mervin's his dream in life was to reinvent the department store and mervin's was kind of a dying department store it was acquired by target so he spent a few years at mervin's he spent 10 or 11 years at target which is probably the best run u.s discount department store and then he was hired by steve jobs to build the apple store from a blank sheet of paper and he did an absolutely incredible job and we said look you couldn't ask for a better background to do what we're trying to do here reinvent the department store um combine the apple customer store experience with uh you know kind of some of the target uh brand excellence and cost management and the problem was recruiting him he's very happy living in you know atherton california he had uh 3 400 million restricted stock in apple 100 million of which he was going to lose if he left and he had kids who were in you know 13 15 years old in the middle of their you know at a time when parents don't like to move but i managed to convince him to take the job and he walked away from 100 million restricted stock we gave him 50 million to make up for it but he still took a loss when he took the job then he invested 50 million dollars in seven year options that he bought with his own money that he couldn't sell for six years i thought this is the absolute perfect thing we have the best guy we've got a great platform at a really cheap price we have the perfect alignment of incentives and i thought it's done but it didn't work but it didn't work and uh and so ron got started in november of uh 2011 and he proceeded to make a series of changes many of them very favorable among them took a very hard look at the cost structure and found about a billion dollars that he could take out of the cost structure of the business we took a hard look at all the non-core assets and we monetized about 600 million dollars of the non-core assets so far so good and then he launched a business plan to convert the jcpenney store into basically a mini shopping mall uh a selfridges type model where there were a series of uh brands each of which would have their own kind of presence in the store and then you'd have a consolidated checkout with a wireless experience and sort of this apple like customer service experience and he sold this idea to brands that heretofore wouldn't be willing to go into jcpenney and the guy's very charismatic was a great idea they had a whole bunch of brands that he got from around the world who were excited about opening up inside jcpenney and he went to work but he made one very significant strategic mistake this whole notion of what he almost called fraudulent pricing this overpricing an item and then marking it down and marking down in coupons he said look there's a waste of time let's just mark it at the price the consumer knows the fair price because when you looked at those forty dollar dresses and forty dollar shirts they all sold it for something like twelve dollars and thirty cents by on average and very little sold at any other price let's just mark it at 12 bucks the consumer understands value we can save a huge amount of you know the company had spent enormous amount of man hours actually changing signs if you think about how often they're constantly repricing and re-ticketing and changing signs i mean the stores look really cluttered and you know it sounded like a brilliant idea and apple the apple experience was not about testing so instead of trying this out in one or two stores or in a region he rolled it out across the country and it failed and the customer who had become accustomed to getting coupons in their sunday circular all of a sudden coupons weren't there and so they decided not to come and we lost about a third of our customers after about 12 months and the great thing about a retail business if you get it right is this business has enormous operating leverage right because you've got a substantial fixed cost base but once you start generating additional sales it almost all drops a lot of it drops to the bottom line well you know only a problem with leverage as you learn in business schools it works in reverse and so all of a sudden the company was losing huge amounts of money after having spent a ton of money on capital rebuilding and redesigning these stores we found ourselves in a turnaround 15 months after he was hired and we had to replace him
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