Bitcoin down to 18k!!! Chamath Palihapitiya say it will get much worse!!!!

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결론: 시장 하락이 더 심해질 가능성이 크며 바닥 신호는 아직 없다고 본다. 유동성과 주식시장: 2018년부터 2021년 11월까지 연준의 달러 공급(유동성)과 S&P 500 간 상관계수가 0.92로 매우 높았다고 설명한다. 시가총액 손실: 올해 들어 글로벌 시가총액 약 35조 달러가 사라졌으며 이는 전체 부의 약 14% 수준이라고 주장한다. 2008년 금융위기 때의 약 19%와 비교한다. 이번 하락의 특징: 2008년과 달리 특정 금융기관에 국한되지 않고 암호화폐, 신용시장, 주식 전반이 동시에 하락하고 있다고 본다. 나스닥은 약세장(bear market)에 진입했고 S&P 500도 약세장 직전이라고 말한다. 거시 지표: CPI 하락이 아직 나타나지 않았고 실업수당 청구건수가 증가하고 있어 기업 해고가 시작될 수 있다고 본다. 우크라이나 전쟁에 월 약 400억 달러가 들어간다는 점도 부담 요인으로 제시한다. 양적긴축(QT): 연준의 대차대조표 축소가 월 약 900억 달러 규모로 시작되며, 전체 축소에는 약 3년이 걸리고 약 3조 달러의 유동성이 빠진다고 말한다. 신용시장 신호: 일론 머스크의 트위터 인수 자금 조달에 모건스탠리가 제시한 우선주 방식의 이자율이 연 14%(현물 이자 지급 옵션 포함)라는 점을 예로 들어 신용시장이 극도로 경색되어 있다고 지적한다. 전망: 단기 바닥 형성에 대한 근거가 부족하며 하락이 계속될 가능성을 강조한다. 비트코인은 1만8천 달러 부근까지 떨어지고 더 나빠질 수 있다고 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. make sure you hit the subscribe button as that greatly helps us keep putting out daily content to keep you updated on the market from 2018 up until the beginning or not really the beginning of this year but probably q4 of last year you could have calculated an incredibly tight correlation between the stock market and the fed money printer so the fed is in control of how they can introduce dollars into the economy how do they do that they literally manifest money they don't actually technically print it but let's just assume for these purposes that they actually do print it and they literally take that money and they enter the market and they buy things with it and they're giving you this newly created money that they just created out of thin air from 19 or from 2018 up until about q4 of last year there was a 0.92 correlation between that and the s p 500 going up what does that mean so if you look at a negative one correlation that means that if something goes up this thing goes down dollar for dollar that would be perfectly negatively correlated if you look at something that has a zero correlation that means it's just random whether whether one thing goes up and down has no influence on the other but a point nine two percent correlation effectively means that for every dollar the fed created the stock market was going up by that same dollar and that is literally what we had up until november of uh 2021.

02. since the beginning of this year till about yesterday so i think the number is still going up probably by at least by a trillion dollars we have destroyed collectively as a society um 35 trillion dollars in global market value now to give you a sense of that that's 14 of all global wealth that has been destroyed in basically five months and for reference in 2008 when we went through you know a cataclysmic shock to the system that threatened the banking infrastructure of america and a potential contagion to the world that destroyed 19 of the world's global wealth at that point so you know we're approaching some really crazy heady moments in time where in terms of the market correction and the value destruction the difference here is that the last time around it was really about a handful of financial institutions and some very specific assets right mortgage-backed securities um you know some parts of the of the credit market and then a bunch of financial stocks and that was largely it this time around it's literally everything that's getting smoked there is not a place that you can effectively hide that has been safe crypto smoked the credit markets totally frozen the equity markets nasdaq is in a bear market the s p is basically flirting with the bear market now and i don't really see any end in sight meanwhile we're waiting for cpi to downtick inflation hasn't really done that separately jobless claims are now starting to tick up which means that companies are beginning to affect layoffs because they feel this pressure so now you're going to see an unemployment rate that starts to go up and then meanwhile we're fighting a proxy war in the ukraine against russia to the tune of about you know 40 billion dollars every sort of month or so when we open the paper and decide to read about it so you put all these things together it's not clear that there is the momentum to create a market bottom just to be clear we actually haven't started to remove the money in the system so the process of quantitative tightening which is the fed's mechanism of removing liquidity is going to start now to the tune of about 90 billion dollars a month but to run off all the money that they printed will still take three years right so we have to take about three trillion dollars of excess capital out of the economy and so if you add that three trillion as well that's just going to disappear to the 14 trillion we've already you know or the 14 the 35 trillion sorry you know you're you're starting to touch numbers that are you know as bad as the gfc in terms of global wealth destruction unlike the gfc this wealth destruction is touching a lot of normal everyday folks in very broad-based ways and that wasn't necessarily the case there were a lot of people that unfortunately lost their home but even that was still relatively contained to the hundreds of thousands here we're talking about tens of millions of people owning every kind of imaginable asset class who's seen wealth destruction you know somewhere between 25 to 90 now you can say what is the canary in the coal mine and let me just give you one thing that hit the wire this morning which will show you how bad the credit market is so there was a article in bloomberg that came out that said instead of elon taking margin loans to fund his acquisition of twitter there is an idea being floated by morgan stanley to use convertible debt now i love this idea because i think it's an excellent mechanism this was the you know when elon had convertible debt on tesla that was you know of one big escape velocity moment for me in my career in 2016 so i believe in these products i believe that they work but the reason i'm bringing this up is that the what it said is i'll just read this to you the preferred equity may have a 20-year maturity and include a feature allowing interest to be paid in kind at a rate of 14 percent a year if the single greatest investor's cost of capital for debt in today's market is 14 i think you have to really start to question what the credit markets really look like for market clearing prices because if that's the price for a risk-bearing asset run by the greatest entrepreneur of our generation there's a bunch of stuff that's pretty mispronounced