저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 5월물 WTI 유가 폭락(마이너스 37~40달러)은 연준의 저금리가 만든 과잉 공급과 수요 붕괴의 결과이며, 6월물도 같은 위험이 있어 유가 추가 급락 가능성이 크다. [유가 폭락 현황] 5월물 원유 계약이 만료 직전 하루 만에 1달러 아래로 떨어졌고 결국 마이너스 37~40달러에 정산됐다. 저장시설은 포화 상태이며 원유를 실은 유조선이 미국으로 계속 오고 있다. [연준과 셰일 업계] 연준의 저금리가 손실을 내던 미국 셰일 기업들의 생존을 도와 과잉 생산을 지속시켰다. 이 기업들은 부채 상환을 위해 원유 생산을 계속했다. [6월물 리스크] 6월물은 현재 약 21.36달러지만 다음 달 만료되며, 5월물과 같은 상황이 반복되면 큰 손실 위험이 있다. 투기 세력과 헤저(위험회피 목적) 참여자 모두 손실을 보고 있다. [증시 반응 비판] 다우는 592포인트 하락에 그쳤고 에너지주 하락폭도 4~5% 수준으로 시장이 상황을 과소평가하고 있다. 은행주도 에너지 부실 부채에 노출되어 있다는 점을 경고했다. [연준 정책 전망] 연준이 회사채와 정크본드를 매입하고 주식 매입까지 할 수 있으며, 이는 붕괴를 지연시킬 뿐 막지 못한다고 봤다. [인플레이션 논쟁] 유가 하락은 디플레이션이 아니라 수요 감소이며, 특정 가격 하락이 통화 팽창과 결합하면 일반 물가는 오를 수 있다고 주장했다. 원유 사용 감소는 생산 감소로 이어져 다른 재화 가격을 올린다. [장기 전망] 미국 고비용 셰일 기업들은 파산할 것이며, 살아남는 기업은 향후 원유 시장에서 큰 이익을 얻을 것이다. 공급이 줄면 장기적으로 유가는 상승한다.
다듬은 글
hi everybody well it was one hell of a day today in the financial markets really really a crazy day and I'm not necessarily talking about the equity markets I'm talking about the the oil market how do if you weren't paying attention to what was happening in the oil market today the front month the spot month was the may contract and the may contract went off the board today the main contract expired today I think it expires tomorrow might sure technically what maybe this was the last real day of trading in the may futures contract and when the day started I think the contract was just a little under $20 a barrel you know we got down to like $18 a barrel on on Friday I mentioned that in my Friday podcast the price started to collapse and it eventually got down to below a dollar and as soon as it was below a dollar I was thinking wait a minute it looks like the price of oil is gonna go negative here I mean we've got negative interest rates so we might as well have negative oil prices I guess that's not impossible and no sooner did I tweet that out but then the market went negative and in fact the oil market for may delivery settled I thinking about negative 37 dollars a barrel below on the day was negative $40 a barrel not positive $40 a barrel where we were a month ago but negative $40 a barrel meaning that you didn't buy oil for $40 a barrel if you had oil and you wanted to get rid of it you had to pay somebody $40 a barrel to take the oil off your hands so in other words oil is like garbage right you have to pay the garbage man to come collect your garbage now if you have oil you got to pay somebody to get rid of it because you know oil needs to be stored that is the problem all the storage facilities are full there is no place to put the oil and apparently there's still a lot of oil on the way you got tank full of oil coming to the United States and there's no place to put it and there's no demand to use it so the price of oil is imploding and you know of course what are the main reasons that we have so much oil is that supply and demand really wasn't working thanks to the Fed because the Fed kept interest rates artificially low and that enabled a lot of US shale oil companies to keep producing oil even though they were actually losing money on the oil they were still producing it so that they can service their debt because they still needed revenue and because interest rates were so low for so long a lot of these oil companies stayed in business and kept pumping in fact they're still pumping even though the oil they're pumping at this point is is worse not only worth zero you have to pay to get rid of it so again this is the Federal Reserve had paid a large role in the fact that we have such a glut of oil and obviously the solution right now is to stop producing oil the market is actually telling oil producers don't produce any oil because the all you're producing has a negative value because we don't need it and we have no place to put it I mean I don't know maybe pretty soon people are gonna start emptying out their swimming pools so they can store oil right I mean oil a contract of oil is for a thousand barrels there's 42 gallons of oil in a barrel so that means each contract is 42,000 barrels which I think you could fit that in your backyard swimming pool I think an Olympic sized swimming pool holds about maybe 15 barrels of the equivalent of oil I guess kids could fit in there if it's the same volume as the water but I mean who wants to fill their swimming pool up with up with oil you know I saw somebody joking on Twitter that maybe we could use all the empty we work office space to store all this oil but the problem is you know you can't store oil in in an office I mean you need a certain you know type of contain to keep all that oil so the prices collapsed now obviously the further out months are not down to negative numbers if you look at oil for June delivery oil is still 21 dollars and 36 cents if you want to buy it for June delivery the problem is that contract is going to expire next month in you know in May and I don't know I would be pretty nervous if I was holding on one of those contracts because what if nothing has changed over the next three or four weeks and remember all the oil that's out there I mean we're not really going to use it all up in the next three to four weeks who's gonna take all this oil in three to four weeks I mean what happens if the same thing that just happened to the may contract happens to the June contract that means you have a lot of risk from a positive 21 to a negative for devan's you can lose $60 a barrel I mean who ever thought that you could lose more than a hundred percent of the price of oil right if you owned a may contract yesterday and you thought well what's my downside risk I mean how low can all go I mean could it go to zero you probably didn't even think that was possible yet it went to negative $40 a barrel you know I could imagine do some of the losses even among hedgers obviously speculators you know they're Lou's money right you're gambling on the price of oil you buy a oil futures contract you have no intention of taking delivery right you're just a speculator and now of course you're stuck taking delivery unless you get rid of your contract because if you keep your contract you're gonna get delivered there's a lot of these shorts right they're just gonna deliver that oil because if they they don't need it so they're gonna try to deliver it because somebody ultimately has to take that oil a lot of the speculators just figured look I'm just gonna cash out I don't know Mike I don't want the well I'm just gonna settle out but now you have all this pressure because you have a lot of logs that you know we're short don't want to deliver the oil they need somebody to take it they need to physically deliver the oil it they don't need so the speculators are losing money but what about the actual users the consumers of oil who hedged into the market they knew they needed some oil and so they went out and they bought some oil for delivery in in April 8th the may contract they were gonna take delivery and they thought they were gonna need it that was pre coronavirus now they don't need it they don't have any room to put it because they have more oil than they need because they're not using the oil they thought they were going to use so what do they do they don't want it so now they have to try to sell the contract they were planning on taking delivery but now they got to sell it sell it to who nobody wants it and so you're having to pay a tremendous amount of money to get out of these commitments and so now people who thought they were hedging in oil are actually losing money on their hedges I mean it's one thing if you're speculating you lose money you're not supposed to lose money on your hedges you're supposed to be hedging to reduce your risk not hedging and then all that is storing in a facility somewhere what they do is they roll these contracts and so this ETF is sitting with a bunch of contracts now that expire in a few weeks and what if what just happened in May happens in a June contract I mean who knows where this thing is gonna go the price of this thing could crash a well below $1 a barrel I mean a lot of investors are about to get clobbered in in that ETF because they're rolling futures contracts they probably don't even appreciate what they own or that any of this was even possible but the bigger issue is why is the market ignoring this so the Dow was down just under 600 points today 592 points course the oil stocks were among the weakest but they were only down like 4% for 5% it wasn't really that bad and some were down less than that I mean the big loser in the Dow was Boeing percentage-wise was down six point seven five percent but this is not that big a down day I mean we've had much bigger down days before considering I think what's going on in the oil market this should be a bigger down day the ESPY was only down 1.8% the the Nasdaq got one point two percent that's the barely down a Russell 2000 only down about 1.3 percent in fact the banks a lot of the banks are sitting on a lot of this bad energy debt right all these oil companies obviously I can't pay their bills but I think we actually had a and I know not quite it was about flat I thought it was the index the regional bank index was slightly positive going into the close it ended up down a couple of ticks about a quarter of one percent so barely a decline in in in in the banking stocks but given what's happening the reason that nobody wants any oil is because nobody is using it we're not going anywhere people are staying at home they're not going to work they're not going out they're not traveling the flights the planes aren't flying so obviously we're not using oil I mean we normally use a lot of oil in the United you know going into default the market would be imploded the question is is the Fed preventing the market from imploding or just delaying the implosion is it going to happen anyway despite the Fed or you know is the Fed gonna have to really step up the the money printing and and and you know buy even more securities and actually start buying stocks they haven't actually done that yet they're buying the debt instruments of companies and they're buying junk bonds but I don't know that they're actually buying the stocks yet so they still have that right they can still pull that out of their butts right to start to start buying the actual stocks itself and I wouldn't put that past them because they've already said they're gonna do whatever it takes so they're gonna try whatever they can do to try to keep this house of cards from imploding but of course the more they try the worse they make it because all they're doing is printing all this money I know people are gonna say you see this is deflation you see oil prices are crashing this is deflation this is not deflation this is demand for oil going down remember inflation has to do with the expansion of the money supply but even as the money supply expands right to the extent that it pushes prices up you're looking at all prices right the general price level now as prices are going up right some prices could be falling while other prices are rising so the general price level can go even if the specific prices of certain goods or services are going down it just gets offset by the increases in the prices that are going up so it's certainly possible based on changing supply and demand if nobody wants oil because nobody is driving and nobody is working yes the price of oil can come down but other prices can go up and in fact even when you're using oil even if the oil itself is cheaper right you still have a lot of costs between the oil and the end-user you got the transportation you got the storage I mean there's a lot of other things that have to happen that bleed into it and even if you think well oil goes into transportation costs yes but those companies that are transporting goods oil is not their only cost and oil could be going down but other costs that they have to pay to deliver merchandise can be going up and so you can't just say oh look this is deflation because one price is going down look prices are determined by supply and demand on an individual basis inflation when you have a rise in consumer prices it's a broad grace rise in the general level of prices but within that prices can be falling look look at the prices of computers or cell phones or flat-screen TVs right all those prices are going down they're going down a lot yet the CPI is still going up well the fact that we're using less oil means that we're producing less stuff see a lot of that oil went into the production process so if we produce things using that oil right well if we're not using that oil that means we're not producing those things and so what happens to the price of that stuff that we're no longer making it has to go up because we don't have any of it anymore because we didn't produce it and if we didn't produce it you can't consume it so oil prices can go down in an inflationary environment do not get fooled by what you're seeing in the oil market now course the Federal Reserve is gonna get fooled the feds gonna be thinking oh oh yeah we could print all this money now look look we can offset the weak oil price because we can print more money because there's no inflation because look at oil prices instead of looking at why oil prices are going down it's not like we're now so efficient now in producing oil it's just no one is buying it and because no one is buying it nobody is making anything that requires the use of that energy and so that is inflationary from the standpoint that we're reducing the supply of goods and services that are available in the market to buy at the same time we're printing all this money and handing it out and people are using that to buy stuff and of course in the long run oil is not going to stay down here right what is going to happen to the oil market right the producers are going to go bankrupt now they would have gone bankrupt a long time ago and that would have been better but they were kept afloat by the Fed and they're still being keep kept afloat by the Fed but they're going to sink right these companies are going to fail I mean I know I invested some of these companies years ago right I know from experience right that these were bad investments these ended up being malinvestments right and defend made it all possible a lot of people didn't know early on when the fracking story was new and it sounded very exciting and hey let's take a shot at this but we actually bought into a bill of goods it didn't really work now the Federal Reserve camouflaged it for a while they maintained the illusion because these companies stayed in business and they kept pumping and pumping and pumping and yes the industry was employing people and it temporarily reduced our trade deficit because we were able to produce oil at a high cost based on a lot of debt but without any ability the industry had no ability to withstand this type of decline right the oil companies that are going to end up on top are the companies that weren't all levered up that have the good fields the good oil that they could brute at a lower cost they are gonna clean up right once the dust settles once all these high-cost American companies go out of business they're gonna be left to pick up the pieces and they're gonna make a lot of money in the future in the oil market but we're a lot of people are gonna lose a lot of money right now in the present in in the oil market so long-term oil prices are gonna go up because there's gonna be a lot less supply in the future when people want to buy oil
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