저자: Kevin · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 실적 발표 후 급락(-8%)했으나 매출·EPS는 컨센서스를 상회했다고 평가. 다만 AI 효율화로 SaaS 라이선스 감소 등 '소프트웨어 통합 리스크'와 AI 투자 둔화 가능성을 지적. PEG 1.75, 분기 성장률 8.3% 언급. 금리 역전과 경기침체 우려로 현 시점 매수는 하지 않겠다는 입장이며 모멘텀 정점 가능성 언급. 영상 중간 판매 프로모션 및 무관한 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, congratulations on the results of what just happened with Nvidia. Let's start with the obvious. Jensen signing the same bust was just the tip of the iceberg. In the meantime, we should discuss some of Nvidia's risk factors and benefits, because frankly, their financial results have been pretty impressive.
I really think the market overreacted, sending Nvidia shares down 4.5 % before the earnings conference call, and then down even further, to 8% after the conference call. However, today we received news from the AI world outside of Nvidia that will help us understand what the future of the company might hold.
I call this software consolidation risk . Let me give you an example once I explain what I mean. If businesses fail because AI helps their competitors win, those competitors disappear, and then certain companies have less need for software or other resources. This is the first option. Or the second option: fewer people are doing the work through AI, which leads to a decrease in the number of licenses or seats in SaaS, as we call them , due to the implementation of AI.
Here's an example: Klarna has 5,000 employees, and today in a Fortune article, their CEO and co-founder mentioned that they could reduce their headcount from a peak of 5,000 to 2,000. They operate on a "buy now, pay later" model, like Affirm, and they believe they can go from 5,000 to 2,000 employees not by laying off employees, but simply by stopping hiring, as they plan to use AI.
They literally said that their AI chatbot, created in collaboration with OpenAI, does the work of about 700 support agents. Of course, that's very, very good, isn't it? But AI could lead to a situation where the winners are companies like Amazon, Walmart, or in this case, Klarna, who benefit from significantly higher process efficiency.
However, because they operate much more efficiently , these companies spend significantly less money on other products and services; So, according to an article on Seeking Alpha about Klarna, they stated, “Thanks to AI, we were able to consolidate, create a lighter technology stack, and move away from using Workday and Salesforce.” So, in other words, AI helps CLA make more money, but at the same time they are abandoning a bunch of other software that they no longer need because of the same AI.
So AI helps companies or people who use it to some extent, but it can lead to job losses and competition between software developers for smaller budgets; Of course, if there are fewer employees, then fewer licenses are needed. This is very interesting, because the question arises: who actually wins?
At least for now, Nvidia is the biggest winner, because they are developing the chips, and their valuation is quite reasonable, assuming this “AI factory” continues to grow . Remember, they keep talking about creating AI factories, and that there is a trillion-dollar opportunity to build new infrastructure, GPU-based servers, and data centers.
But the problem, which Jensen briefly mentioned during the report , is that once the trillion-dollar AI center is up and running, what do we do next? His argument is that we need to become even more efficient and create even better chips. But wait, the market went down after that comment because people probably started thinking, " Yeah, that's a valid point." Because after launching an AI factory based on H100 or B200, will we really need Blackwell version 10?
Of course, over time, quality and efficiency gradually increase, but there is a risk that we have already seen the main leap. This is what created the excitement and momentum. If growth slows down, people will start selling stocks, because at the current rate, the valuation doesn't look too high. The PEG ratio is currently around 1.75.
This is based on a P/E ratio of 45 and an expected growth rate of 25.6%. Just a second. That's it. I'll make sure everything is recorded. Okay, great. Sorry. So, in other words, the Wall Street consensus is that Nvidia will grow 25.6% over the next 3 years at a P/E of 45. The PEG ratio is currently 1.75.
And now they are growing by about 8% per quarter. 8.3% per quarter. The advantage of 8.3% per quarter is that you are actually growing 33% year-over-year. So you are growing above the Wall Street consensus over the next three years. The concern is what will happen when this pace starts to slow. Now let's connect this to what I said at the beginning.
If a business bankrupts other companies, those bankrupt companies will eventually not use the software. If companies say: we don't need to hire more people. We will actually use less software, not more, because the quality of software has improved thanks to AI. We may not even need a trillion- dollar software or infrastructure stack.
Maybe we need a $500 billion infrastructure stack, because that's enough. We don't need more AI . I don't know. That's true, but you know, I'm trying to understand what the markets might be thinking, right ? Because, in my opinion, those profits were actually pretty good. You are growing at a faster annualized rate in the quarter than the markets expect according to the consensus forecast for the future.
The numbers that came out, in my opinion, were actually quite good. Let's go through some of them. Revenue for the 3rd quarter is expected to be 32.5 billion. We almost always exceed this figure. Today's consensus was just over 28.86 billion. We surpassed it, reaching 30. We exceeded the figure by 3.9%.
Blackwell samples have already started shipping, and the mask upgrade that they're doing, the lithographic mask, that upgrade is already complete. It could have been a long process, but they've already done it. So, they will continue to ramp up Blackwell production in Q4 and next year. They do not expect to provide any guidance for Q4, but for Q3, they still expect good growth.
Their earnings per share (EPS) beat expectations, the gaming sector outperformed expectations, and adjusted gross margin, while down from last quarter's levels, is still impressive. 75.7%As you know, this is a company that essentially just designs chips, because remember, they don't manufacture chips, they design them.
This is pretty crazy. All of this is actually quite good. And there's one section that I really want to focus on, which I think is really important because it also affects stocks like Tesla, and I want to touch on it. I want to quickly point out: if you want my notifications about trends, promotions, and access to live streams for course participants, as well as wealth creation lectures, we are currently having a Labor Day sale.
We just made a nice 66% profit on our last option trade for today. This is the third time I've been in and out of this particular contract. And this contract was profitable every time I entered into it. And the last one brought in 66% of the profit, which was pretty cool. Now look at this . Have you ever seen something like this ?
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Look there. So the risk for Tesla is that you still see the automotive segment expanding by 5% per quarter and 37% year-over-year . This is a small slowdown, considering that it represents 20% annual growth in the automotive sector now. They're talking about other OEMs, car manufacturers, trying to create their own FSD, whether it's Mercedes, Ford or whoever, and Nvidia is giving them the platform to do that.
It's worth keeping an eye on this. Regarding the comments from the financial report and other details, they talk about opportunities not only in the automotive industry, but also in medicine, medical imaging, drug development, medical record processing, and insurance claims. Every PC with RTX is an AI PC.
Honestly, I wrote down next to it that I'm already tired of AI. I'm getting a little tired of Jensen's same old explanations about how transformative AI is. If it puts a lot of people out of work, improves the quality of software, and bankrupts a bunch of businesses, then on the one hand it's good for software, but bad for the people who lose their jobs.
But, you know, I guess it's just creative destruction. Talking about liquid cooling. Liquid cooling has received a lot of attention here. Hopper will continue to grow in the second half of the year. Jensen believes that there is no forecast for the fourth quarter yet. The complexity of AI is increasing.
Blackwell racks are sold in parts. This is because each customer's rack is slightly different. This is a quote verbatim from him. Our clients don't want us to do integration and stuff like that . This is, you know, they don't want to prevent people like Super Micro from building racks or anything else.
The stock initially fell when it was noted that changes were needed to improve Blackwell's production, but again, they have already completed that . They, you know, made changes to the chip mask, and everything seems to be fine. Currently, 45% of data center revenue comes from cloud providers. This represents over 85% of Nvidia's revenue from data center sales.
And I must say, these numbers are really good. The cash flow is excellent. They increased their share buyback authorization by $50 billion . Their assessment is fair. Everything at Nvidia is simply fantastic. This is a great company. By all accounts, this company should be growing, not falling, you know, by this 6.4% that it's fallen by now.
But, you see, the stock market is not always rational. The stock market must take electoral risks into account. The stock market should take into account that we are about to invert the yield curve, which could be the beginning of a recession. The stock market should price in a recession. The stock market should also take into account the rotation between, say, mega-cap companies and a potential shift to small- cap companies.
Who knows, maybe we'll move into small- cap companies at some point during the recession. I personally don't want to invest in small- cap companies because I'm worried about a recession. Previously, for example, we looked at Affirm, and they showed simply incredible results. They are reducing their costs.
They increase their net profit. They expect to become profitable by the end of the year. They can grow their business by 30% by cutting costs and reducing loan loss provisions on the loans they issue and hold in large numbers. This is all very well, except in the case of a recession. If a recession hits, these loans will incur much more losses than you expect.
Affirm will go bankrupt. Maybe, or maybe not. And of course, investment in AI will slow down, especially if software companies start to make losses, say, any of them. It could be Salesforce, Snowflake, or anyone else who gets hurt. We'll see. But in any case, here's my opinion. Overall, Nvidia is doing a great job.
I love this company. I'm just not buying right now because, well, mainly because of the recession and momentum. I think the momentum peaked, and when Jensen signed the chest, that was the pinnacle. In any case, check out the Labor Day sale at mekevin.com. Thank you very much for being here, friends, see you in the next video.
Goodbye and good luck. Promot to advertise a little and see what happens. Congratulations, dude. . While future design a securities evaluation or investment decision. Any links or products promoted are paid affiliate programs or products and have the house and a house, be sure to always read the ppm on houseack.com.
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