저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 금리 인상 속도를 늦출 것이며, 인플레이션은 내년에 빠르게 하락할 것이라는 전망. 연준 발언 해석: 파월 의장의 성명은 이미 긴축된 효과와 시차를 고려하겠다는 문구를 넣어 비둘기파적 신호를 줬지만, 기자회견에서는 금리가 예상보다 더 오를 수 있다고 말해 메시지가 엇갈렸다. 이는 피벗이나 고원 가능성을 차단하려는 의도로 보인다. 시장 비교: 2년물 국채금리는 약 4.25~4.5% 수준으로 채권시장이 연준 메시지와 대체로 동조화되어 있다. 연준이 채권시장 기대에 맞춰 가고 있다는 평가. 래리 서머스 비판 반박: 서머스는 연준이 현 경로를 유지해야 한다고 했지만, 게층은 2018년 12월처럼 금리 인상과 양적긴축이 겹치면 연준이 곧 방향을 틀어야 했던 사례를 들어 서머스가 양적긴축 효과를 놓쳤다고 본다. 인플레이션 전망: headline CPI는 8%대에서 9.1%까지 올랐으나 작년 대비 base effect로 연말 약 7%, 내년 초 4.5% 이하로 내려갈 것으로 예상. 상품가격 변동이 변수. 통화량 및 수익곡선: M2 감소는 이미 진행 중인 사실이며 인플레이션을 누를 것. 연준 금리 인상으로 수익곡선이 역전되고 3개월-18개월 구간이 매우 평평해져 긴축 과정이 더 깊어졌다는 신호. 경제학자 전망 비판: 이코노미스트들이 2023년 말 CPI가 2%대 중반으로 떨어진 뒤 그 수준에 장기간 머문다고 보는 것은 비현실적이라고 지적. 정책으로 헤드라인 CPI를 7%p 낮추는 상황에서 과도하게 내려갈 가능성이 크다는 시각. 리스크: 상품가격, M2 반등 가능성 등이 전망을 바꿀 수 있음.
다듬은 글
because it certainly seems what was at the beginning was not what it was at the end sure did it that turned into a Lucy and Charlie Brown in the football sort of a deal it throws out there that he's getting mindful of the tightening that's already gone past and respectful of the fact that there's legs and monetary policy and that sort of created a little bit of a party they had a big rally in the two-year treasury yield went down and stocks went up a lot and then the presser comes it's kind of kind of like old times when the presser comes out and all of a sudden the message starts to get sculpted a little bit differently so he sort of contradicted himself you know he's sounded kind of dovish with sort of a huh you know we've tightened a lot already and then suddenly it's what we think rates are going to go higher than we thought before and kind of put the kibosh on the idea of anything resembling a pivot of a plateau of quite some time and I think that really was intentional to kind of Phil said he had to thread the needle he kind of like straddled the problem rather than threaded the needle we were watching it at the same time you did think that it was significant that that language was put into the statement the language of will consider the cumulative effects and the lag effects of what we've done to this point and that was the dovish message that you thought it was important that it was in the statement yeah I mean it's quite quite a shift from we need clear and convincing evidence which were statements prior uh this year and he put this one in I I think to just just show that he's mindful of the fact they've gone a long way you know Scott I was very critical of the FED back in May I thought they were way behind the curve I've kind of somewhat facetiously said they should raise rates 200 basis points and then see what happens but they've kind of done that and they were miles behind the message of the bond market and now they're they're pretty much be on the same block as the message from the bond market and so I think that he's trying to uh make sure that he's not just on perceived to be on a scorched Earth path the real question is what do they do from here what should they do from here I think they're going to do what they should because when I glue these statements together and try to figure out how they can be consistent with each other I think what Pyle said without saying it out loud is we're not going to raise 75 at the next meeting as a base case I think that's kind of what he meant by we're respecting how we've far we've gotten we know that there's legs so I I think that I think we're probably going to get him slowing down and the bond market is basically got the two-year treasury at 450 and that's kind of you know they're talking about 425 450 so they're pretty in sync Larry Summers tweeted yesterday to the suggestions that the FED should either slow down or or pause very soon he said it's quote badly misguided on balance given its past errors the FED should stay on the current course and then evaluate things you agree or disagree with Mr Summers a former treasury secretary of the United States who's been one of the chief critics of the FED I was very much in line with Mr Summer's thinking back in May to July but I think what he's missing with this analysis because he doesn't talk about quantitative Titan because quantitative tightening has has an effect too on things remember 2018 in December when we were on autopilot with both great hikes and quantitative tightening and they had to Pivot almost immediately so I think he's kind of missing that also the big inflation pop that caused all this tremendous change and attitude that fed towards rate hikes was fueled primarily by the terrible CPI data of the first few months of this year and so suddenly we went from very modest rate hike expectations to very big great height expectations but of course what that means is those numbers are going to be rolling off so while the CPI has been hanging out on the headline it in the eights and even got to 9.1 it's coming down next year we'll end this year at around seven we'll probably be at below four and a half as a base case things can always change with commodities by by the May reading so I don't know it just seems like if that's what's coming you're getting the CPI rate down by a few hundred basis points and we've got quantitative tightening and the FED did not say they're not raising rates they quite quite frankly they said they're going to raise them more than they thought maybe a few months ago but you think a Slowdown is warranted for the very reasons you're suggesting that you think inflation is going to roll over hard like David Rosenberg has talked about in the last 24 hours or so because of in some part the money supply coming down that inflation is going to get crushed the money supply coming down is already a fact it's not a prediction it's something that's already percolating through and the FED raising these rates uh is inverted the curve and the FED got uh pretty frightened I think of how flat the three months to 18 months which Jay Paul claims is his favorite yield curve analysis how flat that got so that all suggests to me that we're getting more you know deeper into the process and I think that Rosie is right that when inflation starts to come down with all of this fed activity thanks to the M2 and the recent decline which could be reversed but so far recent decline commodity prices who thinks the inflation rate but the economists think the inflation rate is going to go from 8.2 today on the CPI to something like two high twos mid twos by the end of 2023.
some people even say two percent by the 2023 and then the weird part of the forecast is they say it's going to stay there write it to like a rock for the next many quarters which is completely implausible in my view if you're manipulating through policies a seven point decline from Pizza trough in the headline CPI in that compressed of a time frame I think your chance of stopping it too is very low
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