저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 2023년은 침체가 아니라 회복의 해이며, 종목 선별 중심의 분산 투자가 유리하다는 견해. 경기 전망: 대다수 경제학자가 침체를 예상하지만 본인은 올해 침체가 없을 것으로 봄. 기업들이 이미 비용 조정을 해 취약성이 낮고, 최근 데이터도 2022년 경기가 예상보다 양호했다고 제시. 경기 체제 전환: 2009~2021년의 초저금리 뉴노멀에서 3~4% 금리와 다소 높은 인플레이션을 수반하는 올드노멀로 복귀 중이며 이를 긍정적으로 평가. 시장 전망: S&P500은 2022년 1월 3일 고점 대비 약 16.6% 하락했으나 동일가중 지수는 8.4% 하락에 그쳐 상승장이 확산되는 중. 2022년 10월 12일을 저점으로 봤고 이후 반등 중. 밸류에이션은 약세장 저점만큼 싸지 않고 적정 수준. 모멘텀보다 종목 선별형 투자자가 유리할 것으로 봄. 금리: 연준은 이후 회의에서 25bp씩 합계 75bp 정도만 더 올릴 것으로 예상하며 이미 목표 수준에 근접했다고 봄. 중국: 리오프닝은 진행 중이며 억눌린 수요로 중국 경기가 회복될 것으로 전망. 중국·유럽·인도 모두 침체 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 세계은행의 우려와 반대 입장. 인플레이션: 글로벌 디스인플레이션은 지속되는 흐름. 미국 내구재 물가는 하락 전환, 식품·에너지는 높은 수준 유지, 핵심 문제는 서비스(특히 임대료)이나 신규 임대 인플레이션은 빠르게 둔화 중. 자산배분: 주식과 채권 중심. 원자재는 변동성이 커 직접 투자는 부적합하나 구리·원유·금 가격 강세로 원자재 관련 기업 주식은 유망. 산업재, 저평가된 기술주, 금융주(미국 은행 시스템은 건전)도 긍정적. 2023년을 회복의 해로 보고 이에 맞춰 투자하라는 결론.
다듬은 글
okay all right uh so that's basically stuff we will get to in just a bit from now but let's get you a Global Perspective any rdd president edini research is now joining us and good to have you with us here thank you very much uh you know I was talking to someone here in India who's in the global kpo side I mean sort of knowledge providers to large U.S firms and the feedback is that firms are in the U.S large firms are tightening their belt quite aggressively preparing for perhaps what is a very well advertised recession it's coming it's around the corner everyone is ready for it uh you know how how bad is it going to be I think is the only question which remains uh your thought said I mean because this has got implications for markets earnings Etc well I I seem to be in a uh minority of uh economists and strategists who don't think we're going to have a recession uh this year after all uh if we do a recession it'll be the most widely anticipated recession of all times and I think we've already seen a lot of people and companies make adjustments so that they're just not vulnerable to having to scramble to suddenly move into recession mode and meanwhile the latest data continues to show that for all the talk of a recession back in 2022 the economy did quite well uh you know instead of a softer or a hard Landing last year there was no Landing economic growth actually picked up in the second half of last year I think that the economy is going to do quite quite well I think it's very resilient uh and I think we are going from The New Normal of unconventionally easy monetary policy sees which we had from 2009 to 2021 back to the old normal where the economy can grow inflation is somewhat higher than in the past and interest rates are maybe between three and four percent and I think that would be a good thing that's great so after all that nervousness excitement and finally the expectation is that there won't be any recession after all well how do you see markets react because I mean it has been a very tumultuous time for Global markets not even back home in India the market is sort of refusing to even react to Good News do you think if you believe that there's no recession coming is this the time to go all in into markets like India yeah look uh the the problem with the idea of all in it's not as though this Market is going to go straight up I think we did make a low in the bear Market on October 12th of last year I think I I actually thought it was uh back in June that we made a low when we got to 366 on the S P 500 but I was wrong and it turned out that uh we went lower uh in October 12th but it wasn't much lower I think it was a retest and ever since then the Market's been going up again now in the previous uh rallies we've had in the bear Market the FED came and slapped it all down but this time around I don't think the fed's going to do much more than 75 basis points over the next few meetings at 25 basis points a shot I think they're already where they want to be and I think the economy can can handle it I'm very impressed with the behavior of the market when I look at the S P 500 equal weight did as opposed to market cap weighted on an equal weighted basis since uh the bear Market started or the the bull market ended on January 3rd of last year let me look at my numbers here the s p 500s down 16.6 since the January 3rd 2022 Peak but the equal weighted is down 8.4 percent so we're really seeing a broadening in the of the of the bull market uh but again you know it's not as though stocks have gotten that's ridiculously cheap as they typically get in Bear markets uh they're kind of Fairly valued so I think we're in a stock picking Market uh stock Pickers uh I think are going to do better than momentum players uh what about China you know we just got some data around half hour hour or so ago the retail sales contraction is not as much as expected the quarter for GDP is better than expected and the other data points as well that are coming in from there are fairly good what's your sense in China this reopen is really playing out go ahead sir yeah yeah I think uh the reopening uh is probably working um the uh it's sort of a tug of war between uh the virus and and people just sick of being locked up and wanting to go to work wanting to go out and spend money and there's a tremendous amount of pent-up demand because of the lockdown certainly in the past few months if not the past three years so I I think China is uh is is going to uh recover I don't think they're going into a recession by the way I don't think Europe's going to go into recession because the market forces work the price of natural gas soared and as a result there was a tremendous amount of increase in production of gas that went to to Europe so Europe looks okay China looks okay uh India certainly looks fine and the US is doing I think it will do relatively well so contrary to what the World Bank is uh but alarmed about I don't think we're going to get a global recession and I think a diversified local portfolio makes sense here no Global recession but uh Global disinflation is here to stay uh and because that is that is required uh for markets yeah absolutely that's absolutely required I think we are seeing that uh well at least in the United States we've seen that consumer goods price inflation has come down dramatically durable goods inflation is a slightly negative on a year-over-year basis after being up something like 18 on a peak basis last year so we are saying consumer durables goods coming down I think food and energy prices stay high but I don't think they go up I don't think they go down so when you take the year over year that's kind of no no contribution to inflation the issue is services that everybody knows that in the United States we have a problem with rent inflation and we know that current leases new leases are that that inflation rate is coming down quite sharply so you know the pandemic created all kinds of messy situations around the world and I think we're still sorting out the impact of the pandemic and as it sort of dissipates I think we're getting back to normal okay well I wonder what normal is right and the word now the meaning of the word Norman has perhaps changed post-covered but you ended uh the last you know statement by saying that a diversified portfolio Global portfolio is the need of the hour what do you mean by that do you raise your allocations to Gold to Commodities uh there's you know there are alternate asset classes which are back in Action what's the asset allocation strategy for the year well I I tend to focus on stocks and bonds Commodities are extremely volatile they're hard to invest in other than through the stock market otherwise you're in the Futures markets uh or taking delivery of the product which makes it no sense for for investors uh so it's yeah our economy to do better than is widely anticipated commodity prices are already indicating that we've seen that in Copper we've seen that in Oil we're seeing that in gold and so stocks related to Commodities of companies that produce Commodities do make sense here but so do industrial companies so do cheap technology companies that have gotten beat up here uh quite hard and financials look quite good I understand that your banks are in better shape well in the U.S the U.S banking system is in very good shape so I think all in all view the 2023 as a recovery year and invest along those lines all right uh Ed uh good to speak with you thank you very much for your time and uh it's always a pleasure having you with us here my pleasure thank you well
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