저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼의 8가지 투자 원칙 체크리스트를 소개하며, 이를 따르면 장기 수익률을 높일 수 있다고 주장한다. 애크먼 펀드 개요: 2004년 설립된 Pershing Square의 헤지펀드 매니저로, 저평가되었지만 개선 가능한 기업에 지분을 사서 경영에 영향을 미치는 행동주의 투자자다. 성과 주장: 17년간 연 16.9% 수익률로 S&P 500의 9.6%를 상회했다고 하며, 처음 1만 달러 투자 시 약 12만 1천 달러, 인덱스 펀드는 약 4만 3천 달러라고 제시한다. 8대 원칙 1: 단순하고 예측 가능한 사업만 투자한다. 현재 보유 종목은 7개이며 홈 하드웨어, 화학·검사키트, 부동산 개발, 호텔, 패스트푸드 등 설명하기 쉬운 기업들이다. 8대 원칙 2: 잉여현금흐름 창출력이다. 도미노피자는 10년간 거의 매년 현금흐름이 증가해 건전한 사업의 신호로 제시되었고, Yum Brands는 예측이 어려워 보유하지 않은 것으로 해석된다. 8대 원칙 3~4: 시장 지배적 지위와 높은 진입장벽(경제적 해자)을 요구한다. 경쟁자로부터 고객을 지킬 우위가 있어야 한다. 8대 원칙 5: 높은 투하자본이익률(ROIC)이다. 로우스는 최근 ROIC 21%로 제시되었고, 모호크 인더스트리와 비교해 주가 성과 차이가 크다고 언급된다. 8대 원칙 6: 통제 불가능한 외부 리스크(금리, 인플레이션)에 대한 노출을 제한하고 가격 결정력을 가진 기업을 찾는다. 넷플릭스가 예시로 들렸다. 8대 원칙 7~8: 외부 자본 없이 운영 가능한 건전한 재무구조와 유능하고 정직한 경영진·지배구조를 요구한다. 애크먼의 실패 사례: 헤르벌라이프 공매도와 발리언트 파마슈티컬스 손실을 언급하며, 체크리스트에서 벗어났을 때 손실이 났다고 애크먼이 설명했다고 전한다. 진행자는 자신이 체크리스트에 9번째 원칙으로 레버리지 활용을 추가했다고 밝힌다. 기타: 진행자는 구독자 500명 달성 시 보유 종목을 공개하겠다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
This is Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager that started his company Pershing Square in 2004. As an activist investor, he targets companies that have potential but are currently underperforming for some reason. So, he buys enough shares in the business to influence policies or leadership. For example, he could replace the CEO or close down unproductive branches.
What caught What motivated us to buy a stake in a company is if we thought it was a really great business and it was undervalued. And if And we thought the reason for undervaluation was fixable, whether we fixed it or the current management team fixed it. Guys, it's Liquid here. Welcome back to the channel where we strive to become better investors.
Today, we'll examine how Ackman's portfolio management style has produced 16.9% annualized returns for his clients over the last 17 years compared to 9.6% for the S&P 500 index. $10,000 invested with Bill Ackman from the beginning would be worth $121,000 by the end of last year compared to $43,000 from just buying an index fund.
So, how does he get such high returns? Well, Ackman uses eight core principles to decide whether or not to invest in a company. And in this video, I'll go through and analyze each of these principles on his checklist. And then you'll be able to incorporate this checklist into your own research process and make better investment decisions right away.
Number one on the list is the company has to be simple and predictable. Only invest in a business that you understand. These are the stocks that Ackman currently owns. He only has seven positions. You have a home hardware company, Agilent makes chemicals and test kits. And then you have a real estate developer, a hotel chain, and a few fast food companies.
These are all easy companies to understand. You can explain them to an 8-year-old. And their business models are predictable. 10 years from now, people are still going to go out for burgers and fries and order pizza. Number two is free cash flow generative. This basically reflects how much cash the company has at the end of the day to safely invest or distribute back to shareholders.
For example, for Domino's Pizza, one of his holdings, it created increasing cash flows almost every year for the last 10 years. That's the sign of a healthy business. We can contrast Domino's with Yum Brands, which is another fast-food company. So, for Yum, the free cash flow, as you can see, is less predictable, and it hasn't really grown in the last 10 years.
This is probably why Ackman doesn't own it. Number three is dominant market position. It's not always the case, but if a company has good brand recognition, then, generally speaking, it should have a strong competitive position in the market. Number four is a large barrier to entry, or it can be referred to as a wide economic moat.
This essentially means what are the advantages that a company has to prevent competitors from taking away its customers. A company with a wide moat can maybe source its supplies at a lower cost, or it's in a capital-intensive industry, where it's difficult for new companies to start up. Whatever the case, it's got to have an edge against the competition.
Number five is high return on invested capital. This gives investors an overview of the company's management performance. Last year, Lowe's had an ROIC of 21%. This means for every dollar invested in Lowe's that year, the company produced 21 cents in income. The return on invested capital for Lowe's has been pretty high over the last 5 years.
And we can compare this to Mohawk Industries, which is a flooring company that has a lower ROIC. The stock performance of these two companies is just night and day. Of course, there's a lot of factors that go into a stock's movement, but having a high ROIC is generally a strong signal for future profitability.
That's why I specifically looked at this metric when I conducted my in-depth stock analysis of BlackRock a couple of weeks ago. Number six is limited exposure to extrinsic risks that are not controllable. And one way to do this is to find companies with strong pricing power. Now, number three and four, having a dominant market position and having large barriers to entries and being well-known in the industry will definitely help with that.
Find companies that are protected from interest rate movements or inflation. So, if the cost of their inputs go up, then they have to be able to raise their prices without losing customers. An example of this would be Netflix. Would customers cancel their subscriptions if the fee went up by a dollar?
Probably not. Number seven, strong balance sheet where outside capital is not necessary. Having some strategic debt is good to grow the business, but too much debt can be a burden. That doesn't necessarily mean companies that need outside capital are not worth investing in. It's just that those are typically more risky than what Bill Ackman is willing to put his money on.
And then finally, number eight is great management and governance. If the people running the show are not competent, they're not qualified, or if they don't have integrity, then you might want to look somewhere else to invest your hard-earned money. Now, despite the excellent performance overall, Bill Ackman did make some mistakes in his career, such as shorting Herbalife or losing money in Valeant Pharmaceuticals when it imploded.
Ackman has attributed these losses to diverging away from his checklist. He mentioned whenever his company doesn't follow the eight principles, they tend to lose money. I like to use his checklist myself, and it's been working very well so far. I've actually even added a ninth principle to his list, which is using leverage.
And if you haven't seen it yet, I've made this video explaining how I use other people's money to increase my returns. In a previous video, I promised that I would reveal my portfolio when I hit 500 subscribers. I'm at 499 as of making this video, so it looks like it's going to happen anytime now. So, my next upload will probably be a special video explaining all the investments that I hold.
Anyway, thanks for watching and supporting me, and I'll talk to you again next week.
댓글 0