저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거는 장기 투자와 가치 투자의 중요성을 강조하며, 도박식 단기 매매는 실패한다고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 투자는 도박처럼 하면 잘 되지 않으며, 내재가치보다 싸다고 판단될 때만 매수하고 장기간 보유하는 방식이 옳다고 한다. 시장은 시세의 출렁임으로 진리를 알려주지 않는다고 본다. 근거 사례: 버크셔 해서웨이 주식을 주당 16달러에 매수해 현재 약 30만 달러 수준이 되었고, 50년 이상 보유했다고 언급했다. 리루(Li Lu)와 중국 투자를 약 15년간 함께 했고 매도는 거의 없다고 밝혔다. 중국 전망: 홍콩의 사례를 들어 중국 증시와 투자 관행이 수십 년간 점차 개선되고 성숙하며 장기적으로 가격이 높아질 것으로 기대한다고 말했다. 단기 등락은 있겠지만 장기 추세는 긍정적이라고 봤다. 리스크/조건: 단기 매매와 도박성 투자는 실패 확률이 높다. 성공 조건은 좋은 장기 투자처를 식별하고 오래 버티는 인내다. 기타: 포트폴리오는 버크셔, 코스트코, 리루 파트너십 등 소수 종목이며, 많은 종목을 가질 필요가 없다고 말했다. 중국의 겸손·배움·성실 가치를 칭찬하고 유교적 태도를 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없고, 중국 증시에 대한 장기 낙관론만 제시했다.
다듬은 글
if you invest the way people gamble in casinos you're not going to do very well so it's the long-term investment that works best and but if you like the action of investing and sometimes winning sometimes losing just like people like the action when they gamble in the casino those people are not my people i like the long-term investors who figure out something that's going to work over the long term and buy that and the sooner the chinese people gamble less and invest patiently for the long term more the sooner they will do better the world is full of foolish gamblers and they will not do as well as the patient investors well i think it can be learned to some extent and to some extent you're born with it there's a saying in america they go a long attention span they can keep their mind on a game or an activity for a long time until they've solved it and the chinese do have a long attention span and that is a hugely desirable quality because you you're more likely to get the right answer if you think deeply and hard about a subject for a long time and it's odd that a group of people who are so good at having a long attention span like to gamble so much which is quite counterproductive a lot of people think there is such a thing as truth in the markets that the market is going to tell you something just by bouncing around that is not the way berkshire hathaway or charlie munger invests money we have a view as to what the intrinsic value is of what is being traded and we only buy it when we think it's worth more than we're paying so we're trying to make a long-term investment by waiting for something to be underpriced and then buying it and we don't give a damn about all these gamblers in the market to me there's just so much froth and i and it's it's a foolish way to spend your time if you want to get rich well the chinese market is going to create a lot of successful investors if you look at hong kong which has been full of chinese people enmeshed in a capitalist order with a good securities market that is going to spread all over china and increase in respectability in size for decades ahead i anticipate that china's security markets and investing practices will get better and better for a long long time there'll be fluctuations to be sure but but the long-term trend will be toward more achievement more respectability and higher prices the chinese who've gotten rich in hong kong over the last 50 years are not the short-term traders and the gamblers it has been the long-term investors who sought out good long-term investments and stubbornly held them for long periods of time and just as that worked for the chinese in hong kong it'll work for the chinese on the mainland it's not the short-term gambling that's good it's the identifying the good long-term investment and sticking with it for a long time my berkshire hathaway stock cost me sixteen dollars a share and it's now selling for almost three hundred thousand dollars a share that's been a very good investment it took a long time and it was a long-term investment where i liked the people i was investing with and i liked the companies i was investing in and i just sat there for more than 50 years and lo and behold it's worked out very well and there are lots of stories like that lilu and i have been investing together in china for what to 13 years or so yeah 15 years 15 years and we have bought a lot of securities and we've sold very few i have not made very many bad investments it's they've been small and not very many i don't have many bad investments neither does lilu basically the mongers have three stocks so let's just so to speak we've got berkshire we've got costco and we have an investment in leigh lewis partnership three things i'm well along in my 95th year three things you don't need to own a lot of different things to get rich china has a deep confusion ethos they want people to act modestly even though they're rich and powerful they want people to constantly keep learning and to behave with dignity and reason and and improve as they get old and keep working well those lessons are not confined to one country but it just happens that warren buffett and i act like a bunch of people that take confucianism very seriously that's why they like us
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