Expect a 'one and done' Fed rate cut in September, says Ed Yardeni

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9월 FOMC에서 25bp 인하 1회(one and done)를 예상하며, 시장 기대(50bp 이상)보다는 덜 비둘기파적일 것이라 봄. 경제는 재화 성장둔화 수준이지 침체는 아니며 서비스·기술 투자는 양호. 주식은 대형 성장주에서 S&P493 등으로 상승 폭이 넓어질 것으로 보며, 중소형주는 이미 금리인하가 상당 부분 반영되어 추가 상승 여력이 제한적이라고 봄. 파월이 매파적으로 나와 하락하면 매수 기회로 봄.

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01. for more on the markets ahead of the fed's economic policy Symposium in Jackson Hole let's bring in none other than Ed yard Deni president of yardeni research Ed to try to help us Wade through the noise and everything and and figure out um what kind of speech should we be bracing for and what do you make of the fact that actually the markets are still more doish than the FED itself is right now in terms of that September cut they think still a chance of 50 whereas as as we've been following I'm not quite hearing that maybe from officials yeah the uh the markets are very doish um expectations are uh 25 to 50 basis points of the September meeting I think there's still expectations that maybe we'll even have 100 basis points between now and year end I think it's going to be 25 basis points at the September meeting and I think it's going to be one and done economy is just doing too well I know that people got freaked out by the last employment report but uh I think a lot of that was weather and some of the other indicators that came out uh kind of confirmed that like housing start single family housing starts took a dive in the South so if I'm correct about that uh they're going to get some indicators before the September fomc meeting that suggests the economy is alive and well and the labor Market's doing well and that inflation is continuing to moderate so I think 25 basis points is enough and I think that's what po will probably communicate it'll it'll be doish but not as doish as the as the market uh is discounting I don't know if you have a kind of an overall thesis for what's been going on this cycle Marita s who we just talked to a moment ago in the past has said it's it's been an industrial recession but not a consumer one which Walmart really confirmed um so a lot of the typical signs that star in the industrial economy and tell us the Slowdown are coming haven't worked because it's just been a Slowdown in the industrial economy post pandemic which kind of makes sense so what does that mean for for stocks I mean the short answer is they keep going up um but is it more nuanced than that well I I think it is more nuanced uh I think the uh Goods economy has been in a growth recession but it's really interesting we had this huge Spike up in demand for goods by consumers coming out of the lockdowns it lasted about a year and then rather than taking a dive the demand for goods just kind of went flat and I think we're just kind of finally catching up with the upward Trend we had before the pandemic so that's not so terrible but it looks it doesn't look very good when you look at some of the indicators for the goods economy it looks like a Goods growth recession not a outright recession and meanwhile Services economy has been fine uh there's um you know technology now accounts for half of capital spending and that's been doing quite well so all in all the economy I think is all right do you do you just kind of stick with stocks broadly do you try to you know tilt more towards Big growth stocks and and the kind of AI names that that became a bit overextended we were just talking a moment ago I mean you do wonder about an Nvidia it's some point the the the edge that they have gets competed away um AMD is well doing a deal us that you exactly people kind of go if they want those those big gains you know well you know if you're nervous about the Magnificent 7 there's always the uh somewhat less magnificent but potentially magnificent S&P 493 there's a lot of stocks in the S&P 500 that have done actually pretty well just not as well as The Magnificent 7 and I think there's still plenty of opportunity for the market to go higher as it broadens out um I'm not quite as excited about the small caps midcaps because I think the excitement there was justified if interest rates come down a lot uh but I'm not in that camp so because that's that just pause on that for a second do you think that people who are buying the smalls the mids need the FED to cut more significantly I mean even if they did you know let's call it three three Cuts is that going to be enough for those stocks to work it's enough well I think they've already discounted that quite honestly so it it's only enough if the expectations is there's more to come um and I don't see that so at some point here after after the market broadens out to the midcaps I think uh the the large caps um outperform again but not necessarily the Magnificent s more like everything else in the S&P 500 all right we'll we'll leave it there but by the way if if Powell is more quote unquote hawkish by by kind of talking the way you're talking this week and the market sells off you then see that as a buying opportunity yeah absolutely and I think it'll be less dubish rather than hawkish and thanks Ed you're Dy appreciate it thank you